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Michael Pizzolla’s ValueCapping Rant: 2015 Wood Memorial, Blue Grass, And Santa Anita Derby

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From The Desk Of Michael Pizzolla
April 3, 2015
6:47 AM
Las Vegas, Nevada

Dear ValueCapper and Friend,

For those of you celebrating a holiday this weekend, may I wish you and yours a happy and healthy holiday!

There are three Derby preps tomorrow, April 4, 2015: The Wood Memorial, the Blue Grass Stakes, and the Santa Anita Derby.

Because of the holiday, and because of how these races have come up, I’m writing a very brief analysis of these races.

I’m sure you’ve noticed that the public very often has the right horses in a race.

And if you’re like me, you may have noticed that this has been happening more and more lately.

That is, the horses with the best velocity numbers-whether that’s a final time number or pace numbers-are usually bet by the public.

Part of this has to do with the fact that access to good information about horse racing has been unprecedented with the advent of the internet.

The game has changed and so must our approach. In the ‘good old days’, we could simply calculate numbers that were sound but largely unknown by the public.

In my case, I used incremental fractional velocity numbers, and I could be pretty certain of finding a decent bet because very few people had access to those numbers.

Did they win all the time? Of course not. But they were often underbet (in other words, overlays) because they were not widely known.

Different story today.

Good numbers are easily available. Do I think the numbers in Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper Software and the upcoming ValueCapper software are the best out there? Of course-I’ve been refining them for over 25 years.

But that doesn’t mean that there aren’t other good, solid numbers out there, and the public has easy access to them.

To make a profit in this environment, it’s necessary to take the public into account, and to find horses that we like-that have good things going for them-that the public should not. This is the essence of ValueCapping, and it’s very different from traditional handicapping which focuses primarily on the merits of the horse.

With that in mind, the analysis of tomorrow’s Derby preps tomorrow will be very brief, because it looks like the public will be betting the strong horses. In other words, they are horses that we like, but it appears that the public will also be liking-and betting-them.

I’m writing this on Friday morning, April 3, 2015, so I don’t have scratches or weather changes for the races tomorrow, but here’s what it looks like to me this morning:

Wood Memorial

In the Wood Memorial, Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper Software has a tie at the top of the line between the 5, El Kabeir and the 4, Frosted. A close 3rd on the line is the ML favorite, the 6, Daredevil. These 3 are the 3 ML favorites, with the 5 listed at 3-1, the 4 at 5/2, and the 6 at 9/5.

Sure there are plenty of distinctions one could make-the 4, Frosted, is the Fulcrum horse, for example, a horse that often finishes in the exacta, and Frosted has finished 2nd in 4 of 6 lifetime races.

Or one might notice that there’s plenty of speed in the race on the front end and look for a closer (the 5 made a nice close to win last out), but the bottom line is the public will be betting these colts.

If you remember in the last video, I talked a bit about the recreational player/fan vs. the investor. As a fan, it will be interesting to watch this race. But as an investor, I’ll probably be passing.

Blue Grass

The horse right on top of the BLAM Odds line with a significant gap is the 5, Carpe Diem. No surprise here, this colt has been sent off as the favorite in all 4 of its lifetime races, and it’s won 3 of them, and finished 2nd once-the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year at Santa Anita. It won the Tampa Bay Derby last out in very impressive style, looks as if it can run at or near the pace, or make a big middle move.

It’s also listed as even money on the Morning Line.

Second on the BLAM line is the next ML favorite, the 1, Ocho Ocho Ocho, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint last November.

I may be rooting for Carpe Diem, but it will be too short a price to bet, and probably too strong to bet against.

Ocho Ocho Ocho? Whether to invest is a matter of personal preference. Some would say if it’s 7/2 on your odds line, what’s wrong with taking 7-1 on the bet? Nothing. A more conservative approach would look at the 5, Carpe Diem, and see its strengths, see that there’s nothing much ‘wrong’ with what the colt has exhibited in its past performances (no ‘Anti Value’) and not want to bet against it.

Santa Anita Derby

Pretty much the same situation here, with Dortmund. 5 for 5 lifetime, winner of the San Felipe last out, and 3/5 Morning Line. Again, I think the wiser course is to look for easier races where the public may be overbetting a horse with some flaws.

As always on these big racing days, the opportunities often come on the undercards at the tracks that are hosting the big races, and on ‘obscure’ races at ‘minor’ tracks. The overlays you can find on these races are sometimes bigger on these big days because of the amount of recreational money being bet.

I hope this finds you well, I wish you a fantastic holiday if you’re celebrating, and I thank you so much for your support and encouragement,

All the best,

Michael

Michael Pizzolla’s ValueCapping Video Rant: The 2015 Florida and Louisiana Derby

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From The Desk Of Michael Pizzolla
March 27, 2015
2:27 PM
Las Vegas, Nevada

Dear ValueCapper and Friend,

Made a video for you on the 2015 Florida Derby and the 2015 Louisiana Derby to be run tomorrow, March 28, 2015.

There’s also a quick intro to the crux of ValueCapping for those of you unfamiliar with the concept. There’s a big difference between being a ‘fan’ of the big races and looking at them as an investor. I’ll be the first to admit that I’m a huge fan of these races, but I also look at them as I do every other race that I look at: Is there a horse that has positives going for it that the public should not like or may overlook.

If there’s not, I’ll pass-whether it’s a million dollar triple crown race, or a $5,000 claimer at a ‘minor’ track.

For those of you who have asked, yes, I’m still hard at work researching and refining the new ValueCapper software. I’ll keep you posted-I truly think this will be a game changer.

Hope this finds you well, and thanks so much again for your encouragement and support.

All the best,

Michael

Michael Pizzolla’s ValueCapping Rant: Winter Racing 2014, Deja Vu, Happy Holidays

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From The Desk Of Michael Pizzolla

Monday, December 23, 2014
Las Vegas
5:57 PM

Dear ValueCapper and Friend,

First and foremost, my heartfelt holiday wishes to you, your families and friends.

I was reading over a Rant I wrote back in 2007, and it struck me that the more things change, the more they remain the same!

What reminded me of this was an incident in the race book the other day.

Mind you, I try to keep a low profile when I’m in the race book, no screaming at the screens (any more) no calling horses ‘piggies’ at the top of my lungs (any more), no cakewalking away from the window with a pile of ‘benjis’ after a score (any more).

Ah youth.

And yet, I don’t know why, I attract horseplayers of all types who feel compelled to come up and speak with me.

Some have provided me with some of the most memorable and enjoyable moments of my year. For example, earlier this year, I met an ex-NFL champion at the book. He’s a BLAM Wizard, and we had the most wonderful time talking about ValueCapping, about perseverance, about the discipline it takes competing as a world-class athlete and how that applies to our great game. I waked out of there exhilarated and inspired.

And then there’s the other kind of encounter.

Like the one that greeted me the other day.

I’m staring at my computer screen, minding my own business, when between my face and the screen a pointed index finger appears. At the other end is a red-faced fellow who screams at me-“#**&@$ winter racing. And it’s all the fault of #**&@$ guys like you! #**!”

After a moment of being stunned, I managed to straighten my shoulders and say, “And Happy Holidays to you, sir!”

For some reason, this infuriated the fellow, who lit into me with a torrent of profanities. Some of which I had never heard, and I grew up in New York City!

Between the f bombs, I managed to determine that he was convinced that me and my computer were manipulating the board and the odds and that’s why he was losing money.

The crack security team noticed this fellow, racing form in one hand, bottle wrapped in a paper bag in the other screaming at this other odd fellow in a suit and tie, and figured something was up.

After some pointing and nodding from the race book manager, the fellow was escorted from the premises, still screaming at me.

I looked back to the board of a modest claiming race at Tampa Bay and went back to the business of ValueCapping.

I passed the race, but I was reminded of an email I had gotten a few days before from a brilliant Wizard who asked if I thought there was manipulation of odds going on by big bettors who would make a big bet on a horse, cancel it, and then bet on the horse they fancied in the first place.

As part of my reply, I told him about how I had seen this strategy backfire:

“I was at the track many years ago with a group of very big bettors. It was a slow day, and they found a horse in a maiden race that they loved, with a morning line of around 4-1.

They chose what they thought was the worst horse in the race, a horse that hadn’t picked up its feet in three races, and put a substantial bet on it so that in the opening flash, the horse went from a morning line of 20-1 to 8/5.

They chortled as the horse continued to maintain those odds, even dropping to 6/5 at post time.

The horse won by 10 lengths.

What they didn’t know was that the trainer had given the horse some performance enhancing drugs, everyone in the backstretch knew about it, and the trainer’s family and friends were at the track betting the horse with both hands.

I don’t worry too much about this, rather just make sure that I’m getting the overlay I want on the horse I’m betting. One strong betting pattern I’ve noticed is when a horse has a big ValueTech Ratio, say the BLAM odds are 3-1 and its Contention Line is 12-1. By BLAM’s procedures, the horse is a strong horse, but the public, using conventional methods should not see it as such.”

This incident at the book also reminded me of something that happened back in 2007, something I shared with the Wizards:

“A fellow came up to me in the race book the other day, after one of the many winter cancellations and wanted, I suppose, to let me know that he wasn’t just a horseplayer, but a man or erudition.

So he says, ‘Hey, they cancelled Penn National again’. Then, in a big voice, ‘Now is the winter of our discontent.’

Normally, I would have chuckled, nodded, and gotten back to my work.

But, hey, Penn National was cancelled, there was precious little going on, and I was waiting to see what the crowd was going to do with a race later that evening.

So I opened my big mouth.

I told him that he forgot the rest of that quote—that after ‘Now is the winter of our discontent’ comes the real meaning—‘made glorious summer by this sun of York.’

Of course, he looked at me as if I had three heads.

I said it means that the time of discontent is over!

He left to go bet a harness race.

Well, the ‘sun of York’ that has made the winter for this son of New York bearable is the new software that I have been working on night and day.

Now there’s good news and bad news about this.

The good news is that I’m in a ‘creative’ mode.

The bad news is that I’m in a ‘creative’ mode.

You see, the ‘creative’ mode can be one of the most dangerous for the handicapper.

Let me explain.

In any endeavor, to get better, to refine technique, there is always the eternal cycle of creation, maintenance and dissolution.

Create. Maintain. Destroy.

After a period of maintenance, the old is destroyed, and the new is created.

And, as evidenced by the big bang, that creative process can get a little messy.”

What’s so ironic about this is that tonight, as I write this seven years later, I’m in the very same place, hard at work on the new ValueCapper Software.

Here’s how I described my process when developing Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper Software:

“For the past months, my life has consisted of little else but caring to the physical needs—you know the necessities, food, water, air, golf—and working on these computer programs.

Here’s the rub.

I’ve always found that it’s very difficult to analyze or explain something at the same time you’re doing it.

So, over a golf ball, if you’re thinking about every little thing your arms hands hips eyes have to do, you won’t be able to put the club on the ball.

Same with baseball.

As Yogi Berra said, ‘how can you swing and think at the same time?’

So it is with handicapping.

When I’m on all cylinders, I recognize the races to play, the opportunities, the patterns, all of that almost in one fell swoop. Because I’m a ‘natural’? NO! Because I’ve looked at thousands and thousands of races!

Well, when working on a program, taking apart every part of every number, working with databases of hundreds of thousands of races, then programming in things that you see in a glance, but have to give the computer precise rules—it’s like trying to think about how you walk while walking.

Better get yourself a helmet.

I have to separate the time in the race book investing and the time researching. As in about 12 hours per day every day doing nothing but working on the software.

That’s what I’ve been up to lately.

It is a labor of love, truly. The hours fly by in a blink. It is what is making the winter of my discontent really like a glorious summer. Only with less golf.

The moral of this story as it applies to your handicapping is this:

Separate your practice and analyzing time from your wagering and investing time.

I’d encourage you to spend time practicing on races, recognizing patterns, doing all of that.

But put some time between that practice and when you go and invest.

Practice mechanics, play by feel.”

Seven years later, I’m in that very same place, burning the midnight oil, working on the ValueCapper Software. I’m confident it will mark a real breakthrough, streamlining the entire process of ValueCapping, and incorporating 7 years of refinements on one screen, at one glance.

It’s been a massive project, but through it all, I am buoyed by those of you who have made great progress, and have shared with me your journey. It really thrills me to hear of the scores, of course. But more than that, the process that went into making them and the insights you’ve had about how ValueCapping applies to all decisions with which we are faced.

Also, the support of the BLAM Wizards on the Wizards’ Forum for each other, sharing techniques and insights with a generosity of spirit that truly reflects the holiday spirit, inspires me every single day.

I hope this finds you well. Thank you so much for all of your support and encouragement, and my very best wishes for a fantastic holiday for you and yours.

All the best,

Michael

Michael Pizzolla
www.PostTimeDaily.com

P.S. As always, if you have any questions or comments, just drop me a line at Michael@posttimedaily.com

Michael Pizzolla’s ValueCapping Video Rant: The 2014 Breeders’ Cup

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From The Desk Of Michael Pizzolla
October 29, 2014
9:57 PM

Dear ValueCapper and Friend,

How time flies! It’s time again for the 2014 edition of the Breeders’ Cup this Friday and Saturday, October 31st and November 1st.

As usual, there are the handicapping and ValueCapping challenges with large fields, odd distances, and horses making their first starts in the U.S.

While the Breeders’ Cup races are the ‘big event’, it’s always a good idea on these big days look for profitable opportunities on the undercards. Do this not only at Santa Anita but the other tracks as well. There’s a lot of ‘recreational’ money in the pools on these days.

I’ve made a video for you with 5 keys to ValueCapping the 2014 Breeders’ Cup and then a ‘look over my shoulder’ as I analyze all of the Breeders’ Cup races from Friday and Saturday from the point of view of finding good value investments.

In the video, I use the software tool I use every day,   Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper Software. I hope you enjoy.

Thank you again for your support and encouragement, I can’t tell you how much I appreciate it. If you have any technical questions, drop a line to the tech team at support@posttimedaily.com

Any questions for me on ValueCapping, or to let me know of your progress, drop me a line at michael@posttimedaily.com (although it may be a day or two before I can get back to you, what with traveling and Breeders’ Cup.)

Good luck at the races, at Breeders’ Cup, and always!

All the best,

Michael

Michael Pizzolla’s ValueCapping Rant: The 2014 Travers Stakes

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From the Desk Of Michael Pizzolla

August 22, 2014 6:57 AM, Las Vegas

Dear ValueCapper and Friend,

Tomorrow marks the 145th running of the Travers Stakes at Saratoga.

I’ve gotten quite a few requests to do an analysis of the Midsummer Derby, and I was excited to do so, until I opened Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper Software and looked at the race.

As it turns out, the race is not very interesting from an investment point of view, but it is for a lesson in investment strategy.

Here’s why.

The top three colts on the BLAM line are the 2, Bayern (the Fulcrum in this race), the 6 Tonalist (the winner of the Belmont Stakes in which it was the Fulcrum), and the 7, Wicked Strong, which just won the Jim Dandy, beating Tonalist.

Bayern projects through BLAM’s AccuPressureV2 feature to have the lead, or be just off the lead and reserve some energy for the end of the race.

So what’s the issue?

The Morning Line on those three horses are: 2-1 3-1 7/2.

And the Contention Line-that’s the line that BLAM makes to attempt to predict what the public should do in the race-for those three colts are the lowest in the field.

It doesn’t look like there will be a price on one of these colts which will justify investing. That’s what makes this an object lesson in ValueCapping.

In my last rant, I sent you a video on why avoiding races that don’t provide a price that compensates you for the risk you take when you bet is crucial. If you haven’t seen it, here’s the link:

http://posttimedaily.com/michael-pizzollas-valuecapping-rant-a-lesson-from-a-famous-pianist/

I think the Travers on Saturday is one of those races.

If I were looking to speculate on an exotic, I might look to the 8, Kid Cruz. This was a colt that I thought might close in the Preakness. It didn’t, but in the next two races after that, it won the Easy Goer and the Dwyer at Belmont. It was also 3rd in the Jim Dandy to Wicked Strong and Tonalist.

I’m going to look at the undercard-there are 14 races at Saratoga tomorrow. Nothing pops off the page right now, but I have a feeling that scratches will make some of the races more clear.

An intriguing race is the 7th, a race where the 8, the Fulcrum, is 12-1 Morning Line and at the top of BLAM’s line, and the others that BLAM is pointing to, the 9, 6, and perhaps the 4, all look to be prices. The two ML favorites, the 3 and the 10 are below random in the BLAM line, and that means it has discounted them. This is a situation in which to be cautious, and certain that you’re getting a price to compensate the risk.

I’ll need some help from the board to point to a potential value investment in that race, and if there are too many options, it’s a pass for me.

I hope you’ve been enjoying this great summer of racing.

As for me, I’m still toiling mightily on the new ValueCapper Software. Like you, I wish it was ready today so I could share it with you. It really does make the entire process shockingly simple.

But it has to be up to our standards before it’s released.

Also, I’m not going to take the same approach that I did with Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper Software, that of inundating you with a massive number of DVDs and materials that would overwhelm anyone. Rather, I’m designing a very cool course that will allow you to get trained in the entire approach of ValueCapping as well as the use of the new software in an easy, bite-sized, step-by-step manner.

All of this is taking an enormous amount of time, but I promise you, it’s going to be a game changer. I’ll keep you posted on the progress of the project.

I want to thank you again for the kind words and emails, and please don’t hesitate to drop me a line directly at michael@posttimedaily.com if you have any questions or want to let me know of your progress.

Enjoy and remember to let the bet make you!

All the best,

Michael

Michael Pizzolla’s ValueCapping Rant: A Lesson From A Famous Pianist

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Dear ValueCapper and Friend:

I’ve made a short video for you today which contains a very important lesson.

The inspiration for this lesson is the famous pianist and maestro, Artur Schnabel.

It’s all about avoiding marginal bets, and this skill-this art-is absolutely crucial

to success in ValueCapping.

I hope you enjoy it!

In these dog days of summer (it was 112 here in Las Vegas yesterday) I’m still working very hard on the new ValueCapper software, and a breakthrough training for that software, and the entire ValueCapping approach to the game.

To answer many of your questions about a Fall Seminar-I’ll have a decision soon, and will let you know as soon as that decision is made.

Please watch the short video I made for you today, because it contains one of the most important lessons on ValueCapping.

Thank you so much again for your encouragement and support, and for your uplifting emails about the progress you’re experiencing. I can’t thank you enough.

Until next time, be well, enjoy, and let the bet make you,

All the best,

Michael

Michael Pizzolla’s ValueCapping Rant June 13, 2014 A Big Thank You!

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Tonalist-wins-2014-Belmont-Stakes-VIDEO
From the Desk of Michael Pizzolla

June 13, 2014 9:55 AM

Las Vegas, Nevada

Dear ValueCapper and Friend,

Just wanted to drop you a quick note to say thank you.

The response to the Triple Crown ValueCapping Rants has been so positive, and I’ve appreciated your comments more than I can tell you.

I’ve done my level best to answer each of your emails personally, but in case a few dropped through the email cracks, please accept my sincere thanks.

Perhaps the most rewarding came from someone who doesn’t use any software to do their work. They usually do their work with the Post Time Daily 2.0 past performances.

Their feedback was that the principles of ValueCapping, of looking for value first has been an eye opener. And that it increased his Return On Investment exponentially.

This fellow was almost apologetic that he didn’t use software to crunch the numbers.

My response was that it’s not the tool, but how you use it.

If you use any software, no matter how excellent it is, no matter how easy it makes the whole process, if you use that software as a ‘black box’, or play it mechanically, or use it to construct a ‘paint-by-numbers’ system, you’re in for a long, hard climb.

Ask me how I know.

I spent years of my life in search of such a system. The good news is that I was able to isolate factors, patterns, and situations that produced extraordinary value investments. The bad news was that any of those factors or patterns in isolation did not produce the same level of success.

Here’s why:

Finding a good value investment in a race is a complex task. There are so many variables, so many calculations, so many adjustments.

The game has changed with the proliferation of information and good numbers everywhere. We’re flat out playing against a more sophisticated betting public.

So expecting that one factor will beat this betting public day in and day out is like thinking that one can go out after reading a tip in Golf Digest and compete in the U.S. Open.

I use software in my work to make the crunching of numbers, and the spotting of those patterns and situations, easy.

This way, I can focus on the real work-spotting the value investments.

Today, there are 156 races I can play in Las Vegas. Doing each of those races by hand is a daunting task. So, I use software as a way to get the tedious work done in seconds.

Then the work begins!

Speaking of software, I’ve received many questions about the new ValueCapper Software. I must apologize again, as I don’t have a definite release date yet.

This software will make spotting value investments very simple. It also will point out when there’s too much going on in a race and when to exercise caution or pass.

Every tweak, every small change in formula, gets subjected to my personal testing of thousands of races to make sure that the formulas are doing what we expect, and that they are effective.

As you might imagine, this is a very labor intensive task.

But we’re making great progress.

I’m also doing my level best to design the instructional process for the software so that it is not overwhelming, that it can be thorough and complete, yet delivered so that it can be understood in bite-sized segments.

I’m working every single day on it, both doing number-crunching research, and investing with live bets at the race book.

As soon as I have any news on when we can expect the software’s release, I promise to let you know.

I’ve also gotten several questions about when the next Seminar will be. This is dependent on the ValueCapper Software. The software makes so much of what I teach so easy to implement that I want to have the software done before committing to a Seminar.

I promise that as soon as I have dates set, I’ll let you know, and that I’ll give enough lead time so that you can make your travel arrangements, etc.

Thank you again, so much, for allowing me to share my thoughts about this great game, and thank you for your encouragement and support.

Remember to bet only when you sense you have an advantage, and to let the bet make you!

Talk soon,

Michael

Michael Pizzolla’s ValueCapping Rant: Post Belmont Shocker

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From The Desk Of Michael Pizzolla

June 8, 2014 7:17 AM

Las Vegas, NV

Dear ValueCapper and Friend:

Well, the Triple Crown is over, and once again, it was disappointment for those who were attempting one of the most difficult feats in all of sport.

Tonalist ran a fine race, Joel Rosario rode him masterfully, and the Reversal from the Peter Pan produced a very nice exacta.

For those of you familiar with my work, you know about the concept of the Fulcrum. Interestingly, Tonalist was the Fulcrum in the Belmont. Also Chrome was the Fulcrum in the Kentucky Derby, and missed by a few ticks being the Fulcrum in the Preakness.

It’s remarkable how so simple a tool can be so effective. I’ll have more to say about that in the coming weeks.

For those who asked, although I was invited to the Belmont Stakes, I wound up not making the trip this year. I didn’t want to mention it before the race, but one of my dearest friends, golf buddy, and pillar of the Las Vegas business community passed away on Wednesday.

Watching the NBC coverage, the crowd and energy at Belmont looked amazing, and part of me wanted to be there.

There was one thing that shocked me though.

Steve Coburn, one of the owners of California Chrome was interviewed after the race. Not only did he not congratulate the connections of Tonalist, he went on a rant calling those who did not run in all Triple Crown races ‘cowards’.

He would make it a requirement that only colts that ran in all three legs of the Triple Crown be allowed to claim that title.

His tone, his apparent anger, the attitude that has been called ‘sore loser’ was unfortunate.

What would we do with future Triple Crown winners under that scheme? Put an asterisk by their names?

Sir Barton, Gallant Fox, Omaha, War Admiral, Whirlaway, Count Fleet, Assault, Citation, Secretariat, Seattle Slew, and Secretariat took on all comers and prevailed.

The Triple Crown is coveted not because it is easy, but because it is hard. The Belmont is the toughest of the three, in my opinion, a true test of a champion. California Chrome, like so many other very good colts, just could not get it done.

The pace was relatively slow early, 24, 48-and some have criticized Victor Espinosa for not taking the lead. I have stopped second guessing jockeys, especially one that seems to have such a good record with a particular horse-in this case he won 6 straight races since getting the mount on the colt, including the Derby and Preakness.

So, I figured that it was just the disappointment of the moment that caused Mr. Coburn to vent. That he’d calm down after a night’s sleep and think better of his diatribe.

I was wrong.

This morning, he doubled down on his comments, comparing the unfairness that California Chrome faced in the Belmont to a child in a wheelchair playing basketball against him.

I’m not kidding.

You can watch it for yourself here, it’s 5 minutes long and shocking:

Forgive me, I don’t mean to be harsh, but the name of his racing enterprise, Dumb Ass Partners, is apt.

Thanks for taking this Triple Crown journey with me, and I hope you’ve gained some insights about the ValueCapping approach to investing at the race track.

I’ll talk to you soon,

All the best,

Michael

Michael Pizzolla’s 2014 Belmont Stakes ValueCapping Video Rant

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From The Desk Of Michael Pizzolla
June 5, 2014 1:01 PM
Las Vegas, Nevada

Dear ValueCapper and Friend,

There’s been a huge frenzy about California Chrome and his quest for the Triple Crown.

The Today show had a featured interview this morning with Victor Espinoza, and the major news channels have all had a piece on Chrome’s quest.

I wish him well. Not surprisingly, BLAM has California Chrome right on top.

As it did in the Kentucky Derby. And the Preakness. And the Santa Anita Derby. And The San Felipe.

You get the point.

This is a very solid colt, and that’s been recognized by BLAM.

Making this Belmont Stakes a difficult betting race.

Oh, it’s easy to bet, but whether that bet is a good value investment is the real question.

Betting against a colt like California Chrome just BECAUSE it’s a short price is not a good strategy.
There needs to be reasons to bet against it (I call these Anti-Value factors).

With California Chrome there really aren’t any, unless you consider that it will be overbet, and that the last dozen horses that won both the Derby and Preakness have failed in the Belmont.

In the video I’ve made for you, I’ll show you some actual tickets from a Triple Crown winner.

There are some very legitimate colts running against Chrome, and I review these for you in the 2014 Belmont Stakes ValueCapping Video Rant

It’s been a long road to this race on Saturday, and I hope you’ve enjoyed the journey and have learned some things along the way about the approach of ValueCapping and making value investments at the race track.

Thanks so much for all of your support and encouragement.

Good luck this weekend, and don’t forget to let the bet make you.

All the best,

Michael

Michael Pizzolla’s ValueCapping Rant: Thoughts On The Belmont Stakes And The Triple Crown Watch

in Uncategorized by Michael Pizzolla Comments are off

From The Desk Of Michael Pizzolla
May 30, 2014 9:33 PM
Las Vegas, Nevada

Dear ValueCapper and Friend:

The Triple Crown frenzy continues.

I’ve said before that California Chrome is a very good colt, a colt that BLAM put at the top of the line in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness.

I was chided by a couple of readers because I said that California Chrome might not be a ‘great’ colt.

I suppose that all depends on how high a standard one sets for ‘great’. Certainly his times were good, not great.

And I was fortunate to see several races of a great colt, including the Belmont Stakes in which that colt ran two sub 24 quarters in that race, and after that came home in 25 seconds en route to setting a world record.

That great colt was Secretariat.

So I have admittedly high standards.

While California Chrome’s quest for the Triple Crown is a good thing for racing in that even casual racing fans are talking about it, I’m unsure about what effect his winning the Crown will have on the future of the sport.

Will it inspire large numbers to be suddenly interested in the game, in wagering or investing in the ‘nitty gritty’ low priced claiming races that make up the main menu of most tracks’ day to day offerings?

I rather doubt it.

Still, I’d be happy to see him win, although I won’t be betting on him to do so. Why? The price will be prohibitively low. Perhaps we’ll find a colt with a shot at a price to bet on against him, but if there’s not, I’ll just watch the race like millions of other fans.

I do have another reason for wanting Chrome to win. One of the Wizards who uses Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper Software has gone on a trip to see all three of this year’s Triple Crown races.

This was a young man who came to ValueCapping and BLAM without a lot of knowledge of handicapping, by his own admission. And he’s found that a distinct advantage. He financed what he calls this ‘trip of a lifetime’ from his winnings, and for his sake I hope he gets to see the first Triple Crown in 36 years.

What makes me even happier is that he wrote me yesterday telling me of his score on a race at Prairie Meadows last night in a lowly $7,500 claimer. A horse that was rather clear on BLAM wired the field and paid an astonishing $33.60. It was so clear that I had bet it in the morning, knowing that it would be a solid price, but I was surprised at the price, and at the $335.20 exacta.

‘Fans’ of the sport, of the great horses, may turn their noses up at these kinds of races, but ValueCappers, investors at the windows, know that these kinds of overlays can produce returns that the Wall Street hedge fund managers can only dream of.

Next week, I’ll send you my take on the 2014 Belmont Stakes and BLAM’s analysis of the race.

Until then, I thank you so much for your encouragement and support, and hope this finds you well.

All the best,

Michael

P.S. In answer to some questions I’ve received: I’ve been invited to attend the Belmont Stakes, but don’t know yet whether I’ll be able to go. I’ll keep you posted.

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