From The Desk Of Michael Pizzolla
May 18, 2017
1:37 PM
Las Vegas, Nevada
Dear ValueCapper and Friend,
It’s time for the 142nd running of the Preakness Stakes, to be run this Saturday, May 20, 2017 at Pimlico.
I’ve made a video for you analyzing the race as well as some races on the Pimlico undercard.
Before we get to that, I want to say a big thank you to all of you who wrote such kind things about the 2017 Kentucky Derby Rant.
Many of the comments had to do with how the software programs had Always Dreaming on top, and while that’s nothing to sneeze at, what with 20 colts, trouble in the race, sloppy track, etc., it wasn’t a great value bet.
Most of the undercard potential wagers got bet down, so it wasn’t a replay of last year where there were a number of bomb prices. As a result, several of the undercard races wound up being pass races for me.
Look, the primary reason I do these videos is not to ‘pick horses’, but rather to demonstrate the process of ValueCapping-the interplay of the fundamentals of the race-like the pace/position scenario-with the prices involved.
The game has become all about making good value bets. Gone are the days when a pace overlay pays a big price.
I’ll have a lot more to say about that in the upcoming “ValueCapping Basic Training Course’, which is in production now, and should be ready for you in a couple of weeks.
In this 2017 Preakness Stakes Video, I’ll take you through the Preakness as well as a couple of undercard races at Pimlico, and one at Parx. Bear in mind that I’m looking at these races today, Thursday, May 18, 2017, 2 days before the races, and there can be scratches, weather changes, etc.
About the Preakness-Spoiler alert: Always Dreaming is at the top of the odds line. Having said that, there might be a couple of upsetters that look reasonable if they go off at long-enough odds.
Remember, there are lots of opportunities on big days such as Preakness Day, so be sure to wait for your price.
I’ll often encourage you to let the bet make you, and what I mean by that is to use the ‘felt sense’ that comes from practicing the principles of ValueCapping, and wait for those bets that look and feel very ‘right’ to you.
I hope you enjoy the video, and I thank you again for your encouragement and support. I can’t say thank you enough for the kind words and emails. And for those of you on the Wizards’ Forum, the support and help you give one another is something for which I am grateful every single day.
All the best,
Michael
