Value Tech Blog

In ValueCapping, as in life, sometimes you can have too much of a good thing.

Yes, a horse can have ‘too much’ Speed, Pace, Good Form, or ‘Class’.

I made a short podcast for you talking about how horses who have ‘too much’ of these good things can be overbet by the public and how to take advantage of them in your ValueCapping

Enjoy!

I get asked about what I mean by ValueCapping and how it differs from traditional handicapping. For those of you familiar with my work, you already know that it’s a radical difference. For those of you who are just beginning to explore ValueCapping, this video covers the core basic premise of ValueCapping, and presents it in a nutshell.

I also analyze the Richard B. Lewis Stakes, a Kentucky Derby Prep race at Santa Anita on February 8, 2014 in the context of ValueCapping.

The video also discusses what I mean when I say ‘Let the bet make you.’ Enjoy!

Several have asked about the early prep races for the Triple Crown. The reason I don’t analyze all of them is because many of them are too pat, and others have too many unknowns.

I’ve made a short video for you looking at today’s Withers at Aqueduct and the Hutcheson at Gulfstream to give you some concrete examples of what I mean.

If you ask the average horseplayer what the biggest obstacle to success at the game is, they will probably respond with answers like:

I need more winners; or

I need a new system; or

I need the inside information the ‘big boys’ get…

And on and on. You get the idea.

But the truth is there’s one almost insurmountable obstacle to success at this great game.

I made a very short podcast for you explaining what that obstacle is and what you can do to overcome it.

Enjoy!

For those of you who are not on the ValueCapping Newsletter list, or may have not gotten this edition, here's the Newsletter and Rant from January 18, 2014:

From The Desk Of Michael Pizzolla
January 18, 2014, 5:57 AM
Las Vegas, Nevada

Dear ValueCapper and Friend,

I'm about to watch the sun come up on a chilly morning in Sin City. I've been up researching races from the past week,and reviewing the exploits of the Wizards (that's my affectionate term for those who use the Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper Software).

Before I tell you of two incredible scores they had yesterday, I wanted to answer some questions about winter racing.

Some of you have asked if there are different strategies for winter racing, and how I handle them.

Well, yes and no.

A horse race is still a horse race. One or more horses go out to the front, and others try to catch them.

This is true whether it's 110 in the shade or the wind chill is below zero.

But there are some strategies based on realities of the winter game that may help your bottom line:

First, be aware that there is usually a greater percentage of 'pro' or 'smart' money in the winter racing game. Everyone who is a casual horseplayer and fan loves the big races, the Triple Crown, the Breeders' Cup, Saratoga, Del Mar.

As a result, there's a lot more 'casual' money in the summer. In the winter, the more dedicated horseplayers are in the game.

Second, be selective.

This is always good advice while trying to turn a profit at the game, but it's especially true in the winter.

Since there's less racing in the winter, and therefore fewer races from which to choose, there can be a tendency to force bets, to make some bets because the player feels he or she is 'running out of races'

Be patient. Be selective. Only bet when 'the bet is making you'. There will be racing tomorrow!

Third, don't ignore the cold weather tracks.

When I hear the MOTOs (that's my affectionate term for the often voluble denizens of the race books who spout the most trite and obvious truisms about the races, hence MOTO, or Master Of The Obvious) talking about racing in the winter, they're usually talking about the 'warm weather tracks'.

Santa Anita, Gulfstream, Tampa Bay, and the others that run in the winter are blessed with warmer weather and therefore seem more formful to the average player.

But there's money to be made at the cold weather tracks, and very often, if you're patient, you can find the public making a big mistake on a vulnerable favorite that can make your week.

Don't ignore them!

Fourth, pay attention to your track profiles.

Track profiles are simple records of where the winners at specific distances at specific tracks are coming from and how they expend their energy.

So, for example, if you make some notes from the results charts (or are using software such as BLAM that does this for you automatically), and notice that winners at Santa Anita,for example, tend to be on or near the lead at the 1st and 2nd calls, you'd favor horses with that running style.

This is not to say you'd never bet a late horse in one of those races, just that you might require more of a price before investing.

In the winter, those track profiles tend, for some reason, to be more consistent than other times of the year.

Those armed with that information can have an edge on the public.

Getting back to the Wizards and their exploits: A couple of Wizards wrote to share their analysis of races yesterday, and had a couple of outstanding scores.

The first was at Sunland Park's 4th race, where BLAM had the 3 horse on top. It paid $11.40, but one Wizard also made some creative calls on the exotic side, and nailed a trifecta that paid $677 for a dollar.

Then a little while later, they posted about the 5th race at Fair Grounds yesterday.

BLAM put the 4 horse on top and made it 3-1 on the line. It was also the Fulcrum in the race. For those of you new to my work, the Fulcrum is the horse with the fastest second call time in its last race, provided that that race was competitive and the time was not atypical for the horse.

(There's a whole chapter in my book, Handicapping Magic,about the Fulcrum, but that's the essence in a nutshell)

It's a simple concept, but one that has stood the test of time.

This 4 horse at Fair Grounds last night, Vow of Secrecy, won and paid $54.60. What pleased me as much as the nice score these Wizards made was how freely they shared their techniques and analysis with the other members of the Wizards' Forum.

And in answer to some questions I've gotten about new software and seminars:

It looks like any seminar or workshop this year will be in the Fall. I was planning to do one earlier in the year, but recent events, most critically Rick's passing from us, has set our timetable back.

The project that has me consuming the midnight oil, the new ValueCapper software, is coming along very nicely. I am hoping for a limited release in the Fall.

I've just given a sneak peek to the Wizards' Forum on this month's Inner Secrets DVD.

Well, that's it for this edition of the ValueCapping Rant. I hope this finds you well, and my thanks once again for your kind words, encouragement, and emails. You can always reach me at michael@posttimedaily.com with any questions, comments, suggestions, or to let me know of your progress.

Don't forget to be patient, and let the bet make you!

All the best,

Michael

P.S. For more information about Handicapping Magic,Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper Software, Post Time Daily 2.0, or for those of you who haven't seen the new website, please visit www.PostTimeDaily.com At the bottom of that page, on the left side, you can sign up for the ValueCapping Rant and Newsletter and get them delivered directly to your inbox!

R.I.P Hollywood Park 1938-2013

This morning, I read a very well written, yet melancholy article about the impending closing of Hollywood Park, and I wanted to share my thoughts on this with you.

Hollywood Park is not the prettiest track I've ever seen, it's no Del Mar or Santa Anita, Inglewood is not the greatest place to visit (except for the great Chinese food in a mini Chinatown nearby), and yet I'm sad to see it go.

It's where the first Breeders' Cup was run. And The Hollywood Gold Cup was regularly a first rate Grade I race.

As Aqueduct is to Belmont and Saratoga, so is Hollywood to Santa Anita and Del Mar. It provided a change of pace-literally. Something about its mile and an eighth oval made it a good track for pace handicapping, especially for those keeping a track profile. If you knew the profile, beautiful long shots could be gotten, especially in the early part of the meet.

I remember sitting at a race book in Las Vegas after a PIRCO seminar and coming up with two horses in the first two races at Hollywood Park at the beginning of a meet. At first glance these horses looked pretty dismal. Yet, they had the proper running style for the race and the track, and had a early percentage energy expenditure that was perfect for the track profile.

I had a $10 double bet with these two, and the double came back $800 and change. I was whooping it up and noted author Tom Brohamer came up to me and I showed him the ticket. He looked at the horses in the form, and said to me, 'Mikey, I just couldn't bet horses that looked like that'. I know exactly what he meant-his temperament and investment style did not not mesh with the kinds of calls I was making.

I can track my fondness for Hollywood Park to that day over 25 years ago. And for finding long priced Value Investments.

As the wrecking ball of the Bay Meadows Land Company comes down on storied Hollywood Park-as it did 8 years ago on Bay Meadows race track-it will be the end of an era, and perhaps a disturbing sign for the future of this great game.

The article is a good read, and the entire article can be read at the LA Weekly website at: http://www.laweekly.com/2013-12-12/news/hollywood-park-horse-racing/