From the Desk of Michael Pizzolla
October 31, 2018
Las Vegas, Nevada
Dear ValueCapper and Friend:
The 2018 Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs is coming up this Friday and Saturday, November 2nd and 3rd, and I’ve done a video for you.
As I remember from my Catholic school days, tonight is All Hallow’s Eve, and tomorrow, November 1st, is the Day of All Hallows, or as we called it, ‘All Saints’ Day’. It was a holy day of obligation, and we had to attend mass, or else. As in obligated. As in Sister Miriam and her ruler which, at the time, was more terrifying than tales of fire and brimstone.
Don’t laugh, but in a way, I feel like the Breeders’ Cup are days of obligation.
People around here know me as an ‘expert’ because I’ve written books, done countless seminars, interviews, all of that. So, of course, I’m expected-obligated-to have an opinion on each and every Breeders’ Cup race.
Well, like most ‘experts’, I specialize. My odds lines are based on pace numbers, incremental velocity, the fractions in the race. I’ve been developing and refining these numbers for the better part of 30 years.
This year, there are SO many foreign horses without internal fractions, which means no pace numbers.
Some races have 9 or 10 horses with no ratings.
This year, I’m absolving myself of the obligation to have an opinion on those races. They’re ‘hard passes’ for me. I simply don’t have the raw data from which to make numbers.
In the video, I’m going to give you a refresher on the basics on ValueCapping™, and explain why the approach of ValueCapping™ is so different from handicapping.
Remember, though, this video is not intended to be a touting video. It’s not intended to ‘pick winners’, but rather to demonstrate the strategy of finding good value bets through the principles of ValueCapping™.
In my opinion, ‘picks’ are not that helpful. Sharing with you a different way of looking at the races, a strategy that is geared to this new, modern game that we’re playing is what will make a big difference in your game.
In the video, I’ll give you an ‘over the shoulder’ look at how I go through the races using the ValueCapper Software and tell you which races I’m passing, which I’m betting and which I’m considering for ‘recreational’ bets. Hey, I’m only human, and I allow myself a few of those on these big days.
As I write this, it’s Wednesday, two to three days before these races will be run. I don’t have the late scratches or changes or weather. Most of all, I don’t have the odds, and have to make educated guess as to whether there will be value.
But you’ll get the idea from watching the video how the principles of ValueCapping™ apply.
I can tell you from my experience of many years of coaching ValueCappers that learning the ValueCapping™ Framework and applying it to your game, no matter what tool you use, is much more valuable than any single bet.
For those of you who are unfamiliar with ValueCapping™, and want to learn more about it, I’ve got a free video course for you called the ValueCapping™ Revolution Basic Training Course and you can get it at www.ValueCapper.com
For those of you who already have the ValueCapper Software, thank you for your support, and I hope you’ll find this review of the 2018 Breeders’ Cup races useful and instructive.
Since I’m doing this so far in advance, I don’t have final files for most of the other tracks that are running on the Breeders’ Cup dates. But I urge you to pay attention not only to the ‘undercards’ at Churchill, but to the other tracks running on those days. There is so much ‘recreational’ money in the pools, that the betting public on those days can make some pretty big errors that can make for great value plays.
This year, I have a few ‘undercard’ races that look interesting, one at Churchill, one at Parx, and one at Aqueduct.
Whether you’re playing during the week looking at a low-priced claiming race at Mahoning Valley, or looking at the champion horses in this year’s Breeders’ Cup races, the approach is the same:
Find horses you like that the public shouldn’t, preferably running against ‘flawed’ short-priced horses, wait for your price, and let the bet make you.
I want to thank you again for your support and encouragement. For those who have gotten the ValueCapper Software and Training, I can’t say thank you enough. Your emails, messages, and progress reports are so inspiring. A special thanks to each and every one of you on the Wizards’ Forum and my sincere appreciation for the support you show each other.
Finally, a big thank you to you for getting these ValueCapping™ Rants, and allowing me to share my insights about this great game with you. To those of you who have written me—I can’t even begin to express how much I enjoy hearing of your success.
Good luck at the 2018 Breeders’ Cup and always,
All the best,