Michael Pizzolla’s 2015 Kentucky Derby ValueCapping Video Rant

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From The Desk Of Michael Pizzolla
April 30, 2015 11:07 AM
Las Vegas, Nevada

Dear ValueCapper and Friend,

Well, the big day is almost here-the 2015 Kentucky Derby will be run this Saturday, May 2, 2015.

Along with the usual disclaimers (it’s Thursday morning, I don’t know what the weather will be like, don’t know if the Also Eligibles will draw in due to an unforeseen scratch, etc., etc.), I’ve been urged to get right to the race.

And in this video, I’ve done that.

Well, almost.

I feel it’s so very important to understand the core principle of ValueCapping that I’ve done a very brief (I promise) review of that before getting into the analysis of the Derby.

I’ll show you the way I analyze the pace scenario of the race just using the past performances from the Post Time Daily 2.0, and then show you what Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper Software does with the race.

As I’ll do sometimes, I make some tweaks to the software’s calls, and I think you’ll find that interesting. I don’t do that often, as I’ve learned through experience that the software usually makes better calls than I do, but to me they seem like quite obvious calls.

This year’s Derby, unlike the past few Derbies, actually looks like it may provide a decent betting opportunity.

On the video, there are also a couple of races from the undercard at Churchill, and one from a rather undistinguished maiden race at Lone Star.

And for those of you who stick it out to the end, there’s a bonus section on the Kentucky Oaks, running tomorrow, May 1, 2015.

Thank you so much for your support and encouragement, and the many kind emails. I appreciate it more than I can tell you.

I’ve been working so hard on the new ValueCapper software, and I know some of you are very anxious for its release. We haven’t had a major release in 7 years, because I don’t believe in the ‘software of the month’ approach. Suffice it to say that it will be well worth waiting for, as I think it will mark a major breakthrough in thoroughbred handicapping software. I’ll keep you posted.

Hope this finds you well, enjoy the Kentucky Derby, and remember to let the bet make you!

All the best,


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