From The Desk Of Michael Pizzolla
Las Vegas, Nevada
June 6, 2018
Dear ValueCapper and Friend,
The third jewel of the Triple Crown, The 2018 Belmont Stakes, will be here in a few days.
Naturally there’s a lot of excitement about Justify’s chance to capture the Triple Crown.
As many of you know, I was there in 1973 for Secretariat’s Belmont, and then in 1977 and 1978 watched Seattle Slew and Affirmed take their places in history. When I saw the great Spectacular Bid finish 3rd in 1979, I shrugged and thought there would be another Triple Crown winner soon enough.
Since it seemed like such a regular occurrence, I never imagined that it would take 37 years for the next Triple Crown winner, American Pharoah in 2015.
Here we are, only 3 years later, and Justify has a chance to join the ranks of Triple Crown winners.
I’ve been to many of the failed attempts at the Crown. I saw Easy Goer beat Sunday Silence in 1989, and then ten years later was very disappointed to see Charismatic run third. (I had been the subject of a great deal of needling when I did a live radio show with some racing luminaries a couple of days before Charismatic’s Derby and selected him to win. The experts weren’t laughing as hard after he paid $64.60.)
While the ValueCapping approach treats this game more as an investment, the racing fan in me always hopes the colt that just won the Derby and Preakness wins the Triple Crown. Justify is no exception.
Justify is, not surprisingly, at the top of the ValueCapper Odds Line. He’s got a large gap over the rest of the field no matter how the race is biased. He owns both calls in the AccuPressure projection of the race, and the race sets up as ‘Unpressured’-that is, favoring a horse near the front.
So, any thought of betting another colt in the race must be based on Justify declining from the taxing nature of running all three of the Triple Crown races, as well as his getting some pressure early.
I’ve done a video for you on the 2018 Belmont Stakes, taking you through all of those scenarios, how the pace projection is similar to the Derby and Preakness, yet how this race could shake out differently.
As with all of the videos I do for you, what’s important is not so much this specific race and its outcome, but the approach of ValueCapping, and the moving away from the sometimes frustrating pursuit of ‘picking a winner’ to the investment mindset of ValueCapping and finding a good value bet.
Don’t forget that on ‘big days’ such as Belmont Stakes day, there’s often great value bets to be found in the undercards, as ‘amateur money’ is plentiful on these days.
I’ll show you some examples of the kinds of undercard races I’ll look for, but remember, I’m analyzing these races days before Belmont day, before scratches, changes, weather, and so forth. But they’ll give you a good idea of the ‘down to earth’ races I’ll bet.
I hope this finds you well, and I’d like to extend again my sincere thanks to you for all the kind words, support, and encouragement through this Triple Crown series.
You can always email me at firstname.lastname@example.org and let me know of your progress or ask any questions you have. (If you have technical questions, you’ll get a quicker answer by emailing email@example.com). As it’s Belmont week, be patient with me, as it may take me some extra time to get back to you.
Good luck on Belmont Day, remember to wait for your prices, and let the bet make you!
All the best,