From The Desk Of Michael Pizzolla
Thursday, May 17, 2018
Las Vegas, Nevada
Dear ValueCapper and Friend:
The second jewel of the Triple Crown, the 2018 Preakness Stakes, is this weekend!
Thank you for your very kind words about the 2018 Kentucky Derby Rant-as ValueCapper pointed out, and confirmed by the ‘what if’ pace scenarios in the Derby video, Justify won fairly easily.
Audible, second on the ValueCapper line, just missed second, and Good Magic was in ValueCapper’s mix.
So, from a HANDICAPPING point of view, very solid work.
But I hope those of you following these Rants are more interested in the ‘investing’ aspect of this great game, rather than the ‘figure out who’s going to win’ part, or, worse, ‘whodoyalike?’
You see, from a VALUE point of view, there really wasn’t enough PRICE on the colts in the Derby to warrant a bet.
This year’s Preakness Stakes presents a similar conundrum.
One of the main tenets of ValueCapping is to find a horse you ‘like’ that the public shouldn’t.
SPOILER ALERT: Justify is a horse that ValueCapper puts right on top of the line with a big gap.
So check mark on the ‘horse you like’.
Not so much on the ‘that the public shouldn’t’ part. The colt is a 1-2 Morning Line Favorite, and looks like it.
For those of you who are not interested in anything more, you can watch the first few minutes of the video where I give you my 5 minute analysis of the Preakness.
In sum, Justify looks like a colt that’s not worth betting or betting against.
There are some interesting colts to be used in the exotics that might make a good play, and again, I’ve taken apart the pace scenarios in the Preakness for you.
Those of you who are not interested in how I came to those conclusions, and how to apply the techniques of Price and Pace analysis to your own work can stop at that point. Look, I’m a realist, and know that some of you only want to know ‘who do ya like?’ So there it is.
For those of you who want to go more deeply, I think there’s some very worthwhile material in the video.
Kentucky Derby Recap
Once again, ValueCapper sorted through the 20 colts and put Justify right on top. Audible was second on the line, and just missed getting second.
Although ValueCapper had Justify, as well as the 4 previous Derby winners and all the 2018 prep winners right on top or tied for the top, there was very little value in betting those.
So although the handicapping was excellent, from a ValueCapping point of view, there wasn’t a great value play.
Many of you told me that you enjoyed the ‘old-school’ pace analysis of the Kentucky Derby, and I’ll take you through that process in the Preakness video. This process has been largely automated in the ValueCapper software with AccuPressureV2, and it’s usually so good that I don’t do this kind of work in every race.
Long story short:
Out of the box, just as in the Derby, ValueCapper projects Justify to run the fast fractions it ran in its first two races. Since almost none of the colts have run against this kind of pace, it’s very difficult to project their performances against that kind of pace.
The pace in the Derby, 45 and 4/5; 1:11 was very close to the pace I projected, and it proved well within Justify’s capacities.
Analyzing the other early horses as well as the pressers, it looks like there might be a similar pace in the Preakness.
I’ll also show you the Track Profiles for the past Preaknesses to help with that analysis.
In the third part of the video, I’ll demonstrate how I use the ValueCapper software to come up with a betting strategy. As always, the undercards are often a source of good value bets on these days, and I show you two races that interest me: one on the Pimlico undercard for Saturday May 19, 2018, and one from Parx, that look promising
I hope you’ll enjoy it and I think the concepts and techniques demonstrated in the video will help you in your wagering, handicapping, and ValueCapping.
Speaking of ValueCapping, for those of you who are new to the concept, I’ve done a free video course for you called the ValueCapping™ Revolution Basic Training Course.
This is a 4 video course, chock-full of information and techniques that you can use no matter what kind of approach you take to the races. You can get the course, free, at:
You can watch the first video right away, and the subsequent videos will be delivered to you via email every couple of days after that.
Thank you so much again for all the unbelievably positive feedback on these Rants and on ValueCapper and the training course, and for sharing your successes with me. It makes it all worth while!
Good luck at the Preakness, and remember to wait for your price and let the bet make you,
All the best,