From The Desk Of Michael Pizzolla
Thursday, May 3, 2018
Las Vegas, Nevada
Dear ValueCapper and Friend:
The 2018 Kentucky Derby is this weekend!
Unlike many of the recent Derbies, I’m excited about this year’s Run for the Roses-it’s a fairly clear race, only one unknown quantity, and some clear pace scenarios.
I’d like to sincerely thank those of you who wrote me with such kind words about these Rants. I really appreciate not only your comments but your advice and suggestions.
Some have asked me to keep the videos shorter. Others want them longer and more in depth.
So here’s what I did: In the beginning of the video, I’ll give you my 5 minute analysis of the race.
Spoiler Alert: Justify, Audible, and Magnum Moon figure prominently in ValueCapper.
However, a case can be made that if Justify runs a slower pace than it did in its first two starts (as it did in the Santa Anita Derby), that pace scenario may favor Audible.
Those of you who are not interested into how I came to those conclusions, and how to apply the techniques of Price and Pace analysis to your own work can stop at that point. Look, I’m a realist, and know that some of you only want to know ‘who do ya like?’ So there it is.
For those of you who want to go more deeply, I think there’s some very worthwhile material in the video.
It’s divided into three parts: Price/Value Analysis; Pace Scenario Analysis; ValueCapper Analysis
Price is not Value. Not all price horses are good value bets, not even remotely. This distinction is crucial. Although ValueCapper had the last 4 Derby winners and all the 2018 prep winners right on top or tied for the top, there was very little value in betting those.
The very first premise of ValueCapping is to find a horse you like. However, if you use conventional approaches, in a conventional way, you’ll wind up with horses you like that the public also likes. If you use sound, but more limited numbers and somewhat contrarian techniques, you’ll often-BUT NOT ALWAYS-find horses you like that the public shouldn’t.
In many of the Derbies and prep races, even with our excellent and exclusive numbers, and the contrarian approach to using those numbers, we still agreed with the public.
I’ve been asked to do some ‘old-school’ pace analysis of the Kentucky Derby, and I’ll walk you through that in the video. This process has been largely automated in the software with AccuPressureV2, and it’s usually so good that I don’t do this kind of work in every race.
Long story short:
Out of the box, ValueCapper projects Justify to run the fast fractions it ran in its first two races. Since almost none of the colts have run against this kind of pace, it’s very difficult to project their performances against that kind of pace.
However, in its last race, the SA Derby, Justify ran a slower pace on the lead, and Mike Smith may try to do that in the Kentucky Derby. The big question is how slow can it go and still have the lead? And which horses can do well against that pace?
I’ll show you how I do that in the video.
I’ll also show you the Track Profiles for the past Derby to help with that analysis.
In the third part of the video, I’ll demonstrate how I use the ValueCapper software to come up with a betting strategy. As always, the undercards are often a source of good value bets on these days, and I show you two races on the Churchill undercard for Saturday May 5, 2018 that look promising
I hope you’ll enjoy it and I think the concepts and techniques demonstrated in the video will help you in your wagering, handicapping, and ValueCapping.
Speaking of ValueCapping, for those of you who are new to the concept, I’ve done a free video course for you called the ValueCapping™ Revolution Basic Training Course.
This is a 4 video course, chock-full of information and techniques that you can use no matter what kind of approach you take to the races. You can get the course, free, at
You can watch the first video right away, and the subsequent videos will be delivered to you via email every couple of days after that.
Thank you so much again for all the unbelievably positive feedback on these Rants and on ValueCapper and the training course, and for sharing your successes with me. It makes it all worth while!
Good luck at the Kentucky Derby, and remember to wait for your price and let the bet make you,
All the best,