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Michael Pizzolla’s 2018 Breeders’ Cup ValueCapping™ Rant

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From the Desk of Michael Pizzolla
October 31, 2018
7:57 PM
Las Vegas, Nevada

Dear ValueCapper and Friend:

The 2018 Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs is coming up this Friday and Saturday, November 2nd and 3rd, and I’ve done a video for you.

As I remember from my Catholic school days, tonight is All Hallow’s Eve, and tomorrow, November 1st, is the Day of All Hallows, or as we called it, ‘All Saints’ Day’. It was a holy day of obligation, and we had to attend mass, or else. As in obligated. As in Sister Miriam and her ruler which, at the time, was more terrifying than tales of fire and brimstone.

Don’t laugh, but in a way, I feel like the Breeders’ Cup are days of obligation.

People around here know me as an ‘expert’ because I’ve written books, done countless seminars, interviews, all of that. So, of course, I’m expected-obligated-to have an opinion on each and every Breeders’ Cup race.

Well, like most ‘experts’, I specialize. My odds lines are based on pace numbers, incremental velocity, the fractions in the race. I’ve been developing and refining these numbers for the better part of 30 years.

This year, there are SO many foreign horses without internal fractions, which means no pace numbers.

Some races have 9 or 10 horses with no ratings.

This year, I’m absolving myself of the obligation to have an opinion on those races. They’re ‘hard passes’ for me. I simply don’t have the raw data from which to make numbers.

In the video, I’m going to give you a refresher on the basics on ValueCapping™, and explain why the approach of ValueCapping™ is so different from handicapping.

Remember, though, this video is not intended to be a touting video. It’s not intended to ‘pick winners’, but rather to demonstrate the strategy of finding good value bets through the principles of ValueCapping™.

In my opinion, ‘picks’ are not that helpful. Sharing with you a different way of looking at the races, a strategy that is geared to this new, modern game that we’re playing is what will make a big difference in your game.

In the video, I’ll give you an ‘over the shoulder’ look at how I go through the races using the ValueCapper Software and tell you which races I’m passing, which I’m betting and which I’m considering for ‘recreational’ bets. Hey, I’m only human, and I allow myself a few of those on these big days.

As I write this, it’s Wednesday, two to three days before these races will be run. I don’t have the late scratches or changes or weather. Most of all, I don’t have the odds, and have to make educated guess as to whether there will be value.

But you’ll get the idea from watching the video how the principles of ValueCapping™ apply.

I can tell you from my experience of many years of coaching ValueCappers that learning the ValueCapping™ Framework and applying it to your game, no matter what tool you use, is much more valuable than any single bet.

For those of you who are unfamiliar with ValueCapping™, and want to learn more about it, I’ve got a free video course for you called the ValueCapping™ Revolution Basic Training Course and you can get it at www.ValueCapper.com

For those of you who already have the ValueCapper Software, thank you for your support, and I hope you’ll find this review of the 2018 Breeders’ Cup races useful and instructive.

Since I’m doing this so far in advance, I don’t have final files for most of the other tracks that are running on the Breeders’ Cup dates. But I urge you to pay attention not only to the ‘undercards’ at Churchill, but to the other tracks running on those days. There is so much ‘recreational’ money in the pools, that the betting public on those days can make some pretty big errors that can make for great value plays.

This year, I have a few ‘undercard’ races that look interesting, one at Churchill, one at Parx, and one at Aqueduct.

Whether you’re playing during the week looking at a low-priced claiming race at Mahoning Valley, or looking at the champion horses in this year’s Breeders’ Cup races, the approach is the same:

Find horses you like that the public shouldn’t, preferably running against ‘flawed’ short-priced horses, wait for your price, and let the bet make you.

I want to thank you again for your support and encouragement. For those who have gotten the ValueCapper Software and Training, I can’t say thank you enough. Your emails, messages, and progress reports are so inspiring. A special thanks to each and every one of you on the Wizards’ Forum and my sincere appreciation for the support you show each other.

Finally, a big thank you to you for getting these ValueCapping™ Rants, and allowing me to share my insights about this great game with you. To those of you who have written me—I can’t even begin to express how much I enjoy hearing of your success.

Good luck at the 2018 Breeders’ Cup and always,

All the best,

Michael

Michael Pizzolla’s 2018 Belmont Stakes ValueCapping™ Video Rant

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From The Desk Of Michael Pizzolla

Las Vegas, Nevada

June 6, 2018

5:57 PM

Dear ValueCapper and Friend,

The third jewel of the Triple Crown, The 2018 Belmont Stakes, will be here in a few days.

Naturally there’s a lot of excitement about Justify’s chance to capture the Triple Crown.

As many of you know, I was there in 1973 for Secretariat’s Belmont, and then in 1977 and 1978 watched Seattle Slew and Affirmed take their places in history. When I saw the great Spectacular Bid finish 3rd in 1979, I shrugged and thought there would be another Triple Crown winner soon enough.

Since it seemed like such a regular occurrence, I never imagined that it would take 37 years for the next Triple Crown winner, American Pharoah in 2015.

Here we are, only 3 years later, and Justify has a chance to join the ranks of Triple Crown winners.

I’ve been to many of the failed attempts at the Crown. I saw Easy Goer beat Sunday Silence in 1989, and then ten years later was very disappointed to see Charismatic run third. (I had been the subject of a great deal of needling when I did a live radio show with some racing luminaries a couple of days before Charismatic’s Derby and selected him to win. The experts weren’t laughing as hard after he paid $64.60.)

While the ValueCapping approach treats this game more as an investment, the racing fan in me always hopes the colt that just won the Derby and Preakness wins the Triple Crown. Justify is no exception.

Justify is, not surprisingly, at the top of the ValueCapper Odds Line. He’s got a large gap over the rest of the field no matter how the race is biased. He owns both calls in the AccuPressure projection of the race, and the race sets up as ‘Unpressured’-that is, favoring a horse near the front.

So, any thought of betting another colt in the race must be based on Justify declining from the taxing nature of running all three of the Triple Crown races, as well as his getting some pressure early.

I’ve done a video for you on the 2018 Belmont Stakes, taking you through all of those scenarios, how the pace projection is similar to the Derby and Preakness, yet how this race could shake out differently.

As with all of the videos I do for you, what’s important is not so much this specific race and its outcome, but the approach of ValueCapping, and the moving away from the sometimes frustrating pursuit of ‘picking a winner’ to the investment mindset of ValueCapping and finding a good value bet.

Don’t forget that on ‘big days’ such as Belmont Stakes day, there’s often great value bets to be found in the undercards, as ‘amateur money’ is plentiful on these days.

I’ll show you some examples of the kinds of undercard races I’ll look for, but remember, I’m analyzing these races days before Belmont day, before scratches, changes, weather, and so forth. But they’ll give you a good idea of the ‘down to earth’ races I’ll bet.

I hope this finds you well, and I’d like to extend again my sincere thanks to you for all the kind words, support, and encouragement through this Triple Crown series.​​​​​​​

You can always email me at michael@posttimedaily.com and let me know of your progress or ask any questions you have. (If you have technical questions, you’ll get a quicker answer by emailing support@posttimedaily.com). As it’s Belmont week, be patient with me, as it may take me some extra time to get back to you.

Good luck on Belmont Day, remember to wait for your prices, and let the bet make you!

All the best,

Michael

Michael Pizzolla’s 2018 Preakness ValueCapping™ Video Rant

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From The Desk Of Michael Pizzolla

Thursday, May 17, 2018

Las Vegas, Nevada

12:47 PM

Dear ValueCapper and Friend:

The second jewel of the Triple Crown, the 2018 Preakness Stakes, is this weekend!

Thank you for your very kind words about the 2018 Kentucky Derby Rant-as ValueCapper pointed out, and confirmed by the ‘what if’ pace scenarios in the Derby video, Justify won fairly easily.

Audible, second on the ValueCapper line, just missed second, and Good Magic was in ValueCapper’s mix.

So, from a HANDICAPPING point of view, very solid work.​​​​​​​

But I hope those of you following these Rants are more interested in the ‘investing’ aspect of this great game, rather than the ‘figure out who’s going to win’ part, or, worse, ‘whodoyalike?’

You see, from a VALUE point of view, there really wasn’t enough PRICE on the colts in the Derby to warrant a bet.

This year’s Preakness Stakes presents a similar conundrum.

One of the main tenets of ValueCapping is to find a horse you ‘like’ that the public shouldn’t.

SPOILER ALERT: Justify is a horse that ValueCapper puts right on top of the line with a big gap.

So check mark on the ‘horse you like’.

Not so much on the ‘that the public shouldn’t’ part. The colt is a 1-2 Morning Line Favorite, and looks like it.

For those of you who are not interested in anything more, you can watch the first few minutes of the video where I give you my 5 minute analysis of the Preakness.

In sum, Justify looks like a colt that’s not worth betting or betting against.

There are some interesting colts to be used in the exotics that might make a good play, and again, I’ve taken apart the pace scenarios in the Preakness for you.

Those of you who are not interested in how I came to those conclusions, and how to apply the techniques of Price and Pace analysis to your own work can stop at that point. Look, I’m a realist, and know that some of you only want to know ‘who do ya like?’ So there it is.

For those of you who want to go more deeply, I think there’s some very worthwhile material in the video.

Kentucky Derby Recap

Once again, ValueCapper sorted through the 20 colts and put Justify right on top. Audible was second on the line, and just missed getting second.

Although ValueCapper had Justify, as well as the 4 previous Derby winners and all the 2018 prep winners right on top or tied for the top, there was very little value in betting those.

So although the handicapping was excellent, from a ValueCapping point of view, there wasn’t a great value play.

Pace Analysis

Many of you told me that you enjoyed the ‘old-school’ pace analysis of the Kentucky Derby, and I’ll take you through that process in the Preakness video. This process has been largely automated in the ValueCapper software with AccuPressureV2, and it’s usually so good that I don’t do this kind of work in every race.

Long story short:

Out of the box, just as in the Derby, ValueCapper projects Justify to run the fast fractions it ran in its first two races. Since almost none of the colts have run against this kind of pace, it’s very difficult to project their performances against that kind of pace.

The pace in the Derby, 45 and 4/5; 1:11 was very close to the pace I projected, and it proved well within Justify’s capacities.

Analyzing the other early horses as well as the pressers, it looks like there might be a similar pace in the Preakness.

I’ll also show you the Track Profiles for the past Preaknesses to help with that analysis.

ValueCapper Analysis​​​​​​​

In the third part of the video, I’ll demonstrate how I use the ValueCapper software to come up with a betting strategy. As always, the undercards are often a source of good value bets on these days, and I show you two races that interest me: one on the Pimlico undercard for Saturday May 19, 2018, and one from Parx, that look promising

I hope you’ll enjoy it and I think the concepts and techniques demonstrated in the video will help you in your wagering, handicapping, and ValueCapping.

Speaking of ValueCapping, for those of you who are new to the concept, I’ve done a free video course for you called the ValueCapping™ Revolution Basic Training Course.

This is a 4 video course, chock-full of information and techniques that you can use no matter what kind of approach you take to the races. You can get the course, free, at:

www.ValueCapper.com

You can watch the first video right away, and the subsequent videos will be delivered to you via email every couple of days after that.

Thank you so much again for all the unbelievably positive feedback on these Rants and on ValueCapper and the training course, and for sharing your successes with me. It makes it all worth while!

Good luck at the Preakness, and remember to wait for your price and let the bet make you,

All the best,

Michael

Michael Pizzolla’s 2018 Kentucky Derby ValueCapping Video Rant

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From The Desk Of Michael Pizzolla
Thursday, May 3, 2018
Las Vegas, Nevada
11:27 AM

Dear ValueCapper and Friend:

The 2018 Kentucky Derby is this weekend!

Unlike many of the recent Derbies, I’m excited about this year’s Run for the Roses-it’s a fairly clear race, only one unknown quantity, and some clear pace scenarios.

I’d like to sincerely thank those of you who wrote me with such kind words about these Rants. I really appreciate not only your comments but your advice and suggestions.

Some have asked me to keep the videos shorter. Others want them longer and more in depth.

So here’s what I did: In the beginning of the video, I’ll give you my 5 minute analysis of the race.

Spoiler Alert: Justify, Audible, and Magnum Moon figure prominently in ValueCapper.

However, a case can be made that if Justify runs a slower pace than it did in its first two starts (as it did in the Santa Anita Derby), that pace scenario may favor Audible.

Those of you who are not interested into how I came to those conclusions, and how to apply the techniques of Price and Pace analysis to your own work can stop at that point. Look, I’m a realist, and know that some of you only want to know ‘who do ya like?’ So there it is.

For those of you who want to go more deeply, I think there’s some very worthwhile material in the video.

It’s divided into three parts: Price/Value Analysis; Pace Scenario Analysis; ValueCapper Analysis

Price Analysis:

Price is not Value. Not all price horses are good value bets, not even remotely. This distinction is crucial. Although ValueCapper had the last 4 Derby winners and all the 2018 prep winners right on top or tied for the top, there was very little value in betting those.

The very first premise of ValueCapping is to find a horse you like. However, if you use conventional approaches, in a conventional way, you’ll wind up with horses you like that the public also likes. If you use sound, but more limited numbers and somewhat contrarian techniques, you’ll often-BUT NOT ALWAYS-find horses you like that the public shouldn’t.

In many of the Derbies and prep races, even with our excellent and exclusive numbers, and the contrarian approach to using those numbers, we still agreed with the public.

Pace Analysis

I’ve been asked to do some ‘old-school’ pace analysis of the Kentucky Derby, and I’ll walk you through that in the video. This process has been largely automated in the software with AccuPressureV2, and it’s usually so good that I don’t do this kind of work in every race.

Long story short:

Out of the box, ValueCapper projects Justify to run the fast fractions it ran in its first two races. Since almost none of the colts have run against this kind of pace, it’s very difficult to project their performances against that kind of pace.

However, in its last race, the SA Derby, Justify ran a slower pace on the lead, and Mike Smith may try to do that in the Kentucky Derby. The big question is how slow can it go and still have the lead? And which horses can do well against that pace?

I’ll show you how I do that in the video.

I’ll also show you the Track Profiles for the past Derby to help with that analysis.

ValueCapper Analysis

In the third part of the video, I’ll demonstrate how I use the ValueCapper software to come up with a betting strategy. As always, the undercards are often a source of good value bets on these days, and I show you two races on the Churchill undercard for Saturday May 5, 2018 that look promising

I hope you’ll enjoy it and I think the concepts and techniques demonstrated in the video will help you in your wagering, handicapping, and ValueCapping.

Speaking of ValueCapping, for those of you who are new to the concept, I’ve done a free video course for you called the ValueCapping™ Revolution Basic Training Course.

This is a 4 video course, chock-full of information and techniques that you can use no matter what kind of approach you take to the races. You can get the course, free, at

www.ValueCapper.com

You can watch the first video right away, and the subsequent videos will be delivered to you via email every couple of days after that.

Thank you so much again for all the unbelievably positive feedback on these Rants and on ValueCapper and the training course, and for sharing your successes with me. It makes it all worth while!

Good luck at the Kentucky Derby, and remember to wait for your price and let the bet make you,​​​​​​​

All the best,

Michael

Michael Pizzolla’s 2017 Breeders’ Cup ValueCapping™ Video Rant

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From the Desk of Michael Pizzolla
November 1, 2017
11:22 AM
Las Vegas, Nevada

Dear ValueCapper and Friend::

The 2017 Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar is coming up this weekend, and I’ve done a video for you.

This is the first ValueCapping™ Rant since the release of the ValueCapper Software and Comprehensive Training Course this summer, and in the video, I’m going to give you an ‘over the shoulder’ look at how I go through the races using the ValueCapper Software.

A couple of things to bear in mind.

As I write this, it’s Wednesday, two to three days before these races will be run. I don’t have the late scratches or changes.

Also, these Rants, are not about ‘picks’. In my opinion, ‘picks’ are not that helpful. Sharing with you a different way of looking at the races, a strategy that is geared to this new, modern game that we’re playing is what will make a big difference in your game.

Sure, I’m proud of some of the calls I’ve made in these videos-Arrogate when he paid $25.40 in the 2016 Travers, and Champagne Room when she won the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and paid $69.20. Both of those videos are still available on YouTube.

But as profitable as those calls were, I truly believe that learning the ValueCapping™ Framework and applying it to your game, no matter what tool you use, is much, much more valuable.

For those of you who are unfamiliar with ValueCapping™, and want to learn more about it, I’ve got a free video course for you called the ValueCapping™ Revolution Basic Training Course and you can get it at www.ValueCapper.com

For those of you who already have the ValueCapper Software, thank you for your support, and I hope you’ll find this review of the 2017 Breeders’ Cup races useful and instructive.

Click Here To Watch The 2017 Breeders’ Cup ValueCapping Video Rant

Since I’m doing this so far in advance, I don’t have final files for most of the other tracks that are running on the Breeders’ Cup dates. But I urge you to pay attention not only to the ‘undercards’ at Del Mar, but to the other tracks running on those days. There is so much ‘recreational’ money in the pools, that the betting public on those days can make some pretty big errors that can make for great value plays.

Whether you’re playing during the week looking at a low-priced claiming race at Penn National, or looking at the champion horses in this year’s Breeders’ Cup races, the approach is the same:

Find horses you like that the public shouldn’t, preferably running against ‘flawed’ horses, wait for your price, and let the bet make you.

Finally, I want to thank you again for your support and encouragement. For those who have gotten the ValueCapper Software and Training, I can’t say thank you enough. Your emails, messages, and progress reports are so inspiring.

A big thank you also to each and every one of you getting these ValueCapping™ Rants, and to those of you contacting me—I can’t even begin to express how much I enjoy hearing of your success.

Click Here To Watch The 2017 Breeders’ Cup ValueCapping Video Rant

Good luck at the 2017 Breeders’ Cup and always,

All the best,
​​​​​​​
Michael

P.S. If you have any questions or comments, or just want to let me know how you’re doing with your ValueCapping™, you can drop me a line at michael@posttimedaily.com. Be patient, as this is Breeders’ Cup Weekend, and I’m doing some local TV interviews, and having loads of scintillating conversations usually beginning with, ‘Hey Michael, who do you like…’

Michael Pizzolla’s 2017 Belmont Stakes ValueCapping™ Rant

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From The Desk Of Michael Pizzolla
Las Vegas, Nevada
June 8, 2016 2:47 PM

Dear ValueCapper and Friend,

The 149th running of The Belmont Stakes, will be here in two days.

Neither the Kentucky Derby winner, Always Dreaming, nor the Preakness winner, Cloud Computing, will be running in the race.

One of the favorites in the Derby-last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner-Classic Empire is also out, with an abscess on it’s right front hoof.

In fact, the only colt running that ran in both the Derby and Preakness is Lookin At Lee, runner up in the Derby.

A mile and a half is not a great distance for a pace handicapper. Incremental pace numbers tend to be less reliable once one gets past a mile and 3/16s.

Not surprisingly, the Black Magic 1.0 Handicapper Software Odds Line, does not indicate a stickout horse, as you might expect. Once again, there’s are some interesting wrinkles having to do with the Track Profile and how the past Belmont Stakes winners have positioned themselves in the race and how they expended their energy.

I did a video for you on the Belmont Stakes, and also looked at some races from the Belmont undercard. Very often on these big days, the undercards are more profitable than the ‘big races’. I don’t have all the final cards yet (it’s over 2 days before the Belmont), but I did find an interesting race at Louisiana Downs as well.

In this video, I accepted a challenge from a Black Magic Handicapper user who asked me to demonstrate how I move around the software rather than doing prepared slides.

So, I’ve done just that to give you an idea of how the value bet emerges-or doesn’t-from looking at the race with the software. I had to slow down a bit, as sometimes the computer can’t keep up with how fast I fly around the various screens, but you’ll get the idea.

Remember that the purpose of these ValueCapping™ Rants is to reinforce the concepts and framework of ValueCapping™, rather that a ‘who do ya like’ video. Because no matter what happens in those specific races, the ValueCapping approach will stand you in very good stead.

I just finished a video in the upcoming ValueCapping™ Revolution Basic Training Course on the shift from ‘handicapper/horseplayer’ to Investor/ ValueCapper. Making this shift is more than just words. It’s like playing a different, more successful, game.

That course will be released in a few weeks, and I’ll let you know exactly how to get it.
​​​​​​​
I hope this finds you well, and I’d like to extend again my sincere thanks to you for all the kind words, email, support, and encouragement. You can always email me at michael@posttimedaily.com and let me know of your progress or ask any questions you have. (If you have technical questions, you’ll get a quicker answer by emailing support@posttimedaily.com) As it’s Belmont week, be patient with me, as it may take me some extra time to get back to you.

Best of luck always and remember to let the bet make you!

All the best,

Michael

Michael Pizzolla’s 2017 ValueCapping™ Video Rant

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From The Desk Of Michael Pizzolla
May 18, 2017
1:37 PM
Las Vegas, Nevada

Dear ValueCapper and Friend,

It’s time for the 142nd running of the Preakness Stakes, to be run this Saturday, May 20, 2017 at Pimlico.​​​​​​​

I’ve made a video for you analyzing the race as well as some races on the Pimlico undercard.

Before we get to that, I want to say a big thank you to all of you who wrote such kind things about the 2017 Kentucky Derby Rant.

Many of the comments had to do with how the software programs had Always Dreaming on top, and while that’s nothing to sneeze at, what with 20 colts, trouble in the race, sloppy track, etc., it wasn’t a great value bet.

Most of the undercard potential wagers got bet down, so it wasn’t a replay of last year where there were a number of bomb prices. As a result, several of the undercard races wound up being pass races for me.

Look, the primary reason I do these videos is not to ‘pick horses’, but rather to demonstrate the process of ValueCapping-the interplay of the fundamentals of the race-like the pace/position scenario-with the prices involved.

The game has become all about making good value bets. Gone are the days when a pace overlay pays a big price.

I’ll have a lot more to say about that in the upcoming “ValueCapping Basic Training Course’, which is in production now, and should be ready for you in a couple of weeks.

In this 2017 Preakness Stakes Video, I’ll take you through the Preakness as well as a couple of undercard races at Pimlico, and one at Parx. Bear in mind that I’m looking at these races today, Thursday, May 18, 2017, 2 days before the races, and there can be scratches, weather changes, etc.

About the Preakness-Spoiler alert: Always Dreaming is at the top of the odds line. Having said that, there might be a couple of upsetters that look reasonable if they go off at long-enough odds.

Remember, there are lots of opportunities on big days such as Preakness Day, so be sure to wait for your price.

I’ll often encourage you to let the bet make you, and what I mean by that is to use the ‘felt sense’ that comes from practicing the principles of ValueCapping, and wait for those bets that look and feel very ‘right’ to you.

I hope you enjoy the video, and I thank you again for your encouragement and support. I can’t say thank you enough for the kind words and emails. And for those of you on the Wizards’ Forum, the support and help you give one another is something for which I am grateful every single day.
​​​​​​​
All the best,

Michael

Michael Pizzolla’s 2017 Kentucky Derby ValueCapping™ Video Rant

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From The Desk Of Michael Pizzolla
Thursday, May 4, 2017
Las Vegas, Nevada
1:57 P.M.

Dear ValueCapper and Friend:

It’s here:

The 143rd Kentucky Derby, running on Saturday, May 6, 2017 at Churchill Downs.

I don’t know about you, but I haven’t been bombarded with the usual ‘Whodoyalike in the Derby?’ this year.

I’m not sure if it’s because there’s not a standout in the race, or that there’s no media buzz promoting a horse, as there was with the Triple Crown Winner American Pharoah.

There’s another strange thing I’ve noticed looking back over the past few Derbies.

The betting favorite has won the last 4 Kentucky Derbies!

Orb in 2013, California Chrome in 2014, American Pharoah in 2015, and Nyquist last year, all betting favorites.

This in a race with 20 3 year-old colts, many of them champions, going a mile and a quarter for the first time in front of almost 147,000 screaming fans.

Can it be that the public is getting better at this game?

I think it’s very possible.

I’m working on a new video course for you called the ValueCapping Basic Training Course, and one of the thing’s I’ll discuss is that the game has changed in the past few years, and the public has easy access to solid numbers.

(The ValueCapping Basic Training Course is free, and I’ll be releasing it in the next few weeks, and will notify you through these Rants.)

The Course is a thorough exploration of the theory and practice of ValueCapping, and I think you’re going to enjoy it and the positive effect it will have on your game.

Back to the 2017 Kentucky Derby:

Let’s see: 20 colts, going a mile and a quarter for the first time, auxiliary gate, 50% chance of rain, with the possibility of a sloppy or good or muddy track, and on and on.

And it’s Thursday, 2 days before the Derby, no board, no changes, and my first response is ‘no thanks’.

Yet, every year I do it, because as an ‘expert’ I’m supposed to have an opinion.

It goes against everything I teach, that is to wait for your spots and wait until things are in your favor.

I suppose it’s a nod to my ‘hobbyist’ days when ‘picking winners’ was my focus, and showing off how clever I was (or thought I was) was fun.

I’ve come a long way since the days of screaming my head off at race book television screens, oblivious to the fact that I was yelling at a projected image of a horse running hundreds or thousands of miles away and that the horse most likely couldn’t hear me.

One good thing that came out of that is that I was very aware when I started making the transition from hobbyist and handicapper to investor and ValueCapper.

I’ve been able to communicate about this transition to those using Black Magic: Handicapping Software who participate on the Wizards’ Forum.

Nothing, and I mean nothing, makes me happier than when the lightbulb goes on for one of them, and their view of the races is instantly and permanently transformed.

I’ve gotten several emails the past few weeks from Wizards who told me they really ‘got’ the ValueCapping process and were experiencing more success than they ever had before.

I know many of you are excited by the upcoming release of the ValueCapper Software-Black Magic Handicapper 2.0.

If I may be immodest, it’s a really fine piece of work, and I’m very proud of it.

Yet, it’s not a black box.

The underlying frameworks of ValueCapping is crucial to success, and that’s why I’m releasing the free ValueCapping Basic Training Course soon.

In the second video of the ValueCapper Basic Training Course, I talk about differences between ‘picking winners’ and finding good value bets.

The paradigm that we’ve accepted of picking winners, is one that seems so self evident that we seldom, if ever, question it.

But there’s much, much more to the modern game than simply finding the ‘best’ horse.

It’s all about value-not price-value. That’s why I call the process ValueCapping, not handicapping.

Look:

Just because a horse is a price, does not mean it’s a value play. There will be a TON of price horses in the 2017 Kentucky Derby. It’s a very wide open race.

But I’m not sure there will be any VALUE.

I’ll show you what I mean in the video.

Whether you use Black Magic Handicapping Software 1.0, or any of the techniques I have written about through the years, or none of them at all (perhaps you’re using your own numbers, your own approach), nothing, and I mean nothing will do more for your bottom line than using the ValueCapping Frameworks.

If you’re not exactly sure what that is, or want a refresher, you’re going to love the ValueCapping Basic Training Course.

In a nutshell, the task is to find horses you like that the public shouldn’t. Wait for your spots.

This year’s Derby may be the exact opposite situation: Horses at the top of the line that the software doesn’t really ‘like’ that the public SHOULD.

In Saturday’s Derby, there are 12 horses above random, and 5 Reversal Races.

The lowest odds on the BLAM Odds Line is 11-1 on the 5, Always Dreaming, followed by 13-1 on the 14, Classic Empire, and the 15, McCraken.

Translated into percentages, that means the BLAM Odds Line is telling me that
the top horses at 11-1 and 13-1 have about a 7-8% percent chance of winning. If they run the race 100 times, they win 7 or 8 of those.

Remember that the first part of the ValueCapping Framework is to find horses you ‘like’ or prefer? Well, 7 to 8 percent is hardly something to really ‘like’.

I know in these Rants, I’ve shared with you some really good calls that the Black Magic Handicapping Software and the ValueCapper Software has made: Arrogate in the Travers at $25.40, and Champagne Gal Juvenile at $69.20.

Even though those were ‘big races’, they were fairly straightforward.

This year’s Kentucky Derby is hardly straightforward.

I prefer races in which there’s only a small handful of horses with good BLAM odds, look for one of them with extras going off at an expected overlay against flawed horses.

Simple. Clear. Obvious.

There are a couple of races on the undercards that look pretty simple, and there might be a value play lurking.

I’ll share those with you in the video.

Well, that’s about it for this Rant. I hope this finds you well, in good health, and in good luck.

Thank you again for all the kind emails and feedback, I really appreciate it. You can always get me at michael@posttimedaily.com Please be patient as Derby weekend is always a busy time.

If you have technical questions, please email them to support@posttimedaily.com, and try to do it before the weekend.

Good luck on Derby Day and always! Remember to wait for your price and let the bet make you,

All the best,

Michael

Michael Pizzolla’s 2016 Breeders’ Cup ValueCapping™ Video Rant

in Uncategorized by Michael Pizzolla Comments are off

Dear ValueCapper and Friend,

Breeders’ Cup 2016 is on this Friday and Saturday, November 4th and 5th, 2016.

I’ve done a ValueCapping™ Video Rant for you on the Breeders’ Cup races, and you can watch it by clicking on the link below.

Some of you have given me some suggestions for these videos and have asked that I don’t do such detailed analysis, and to get to the races I think are worth looking at.

With that in mind, I did my level best to get right to the point. Instead of explaining why I’d be passing several races on Saturday, I give you some examples on the Friday Breeders’ Cup card and then just let you know which races I’d be focusing on.

Bear in mind that in order to do this video in time, I had to start the ValueCapping process late on Tuesday night, and the video was done today, so I don’t have scratches, information about the Also Eligibles, and the weather.

Weather might be a factor, because there are a few races where I’m looking for a Highly Pressured scenario and favoring the closing horses. If the track comes up sloppy, that scenario is possible, but less likely. So, the work I did was for a fast track.

Many of you have written with questions and encouragement about the upcoming ValueCapper™ Black Magic 2.0 Software.

I’ll have an announcement soon about the first, limited release of that software. That limited release will most probably be after the holidays. As you know, it’s been under constant development for the past 5 years, involving testing with hundreds of thousands of races. There will be an instructional video site with loads of videos, and some very valuable bonuses.

I appreciate your patience-it’s been an herculean task improving on the original Black Magic Software numbers and odds lines, and arranging the information so that the all of the important issues, primarily the value in the races is immediately apparent. I know the term ‘game changer’ is terribly overused, but in this case, it’s fitting. Stay tuned.

Thank you so much again to those who have written with your encouragement and support, and sharing with me your progress and successes. It means more to me than I have words to say thank you.

Enjoy the Breeders’ Cup, don’t forget about the undercards at the other tracks, make sure you get your prices, and let the bet make you.

All the best,

Michael

Michael Pizzolla’s 2016 Belmont Stakes Video ValueCapping™ Rant

in Uncategorized by Michael Pizzolla Comments are off

From The Desk Of Michael Pizzolla
Las Vegas, Nevada
June 9, 2016 1:47 PM

Dear ValueCapper and Friend,

The Third ‘Jewel’ of the Triple Crown, The Belmont Stakes will be here in two days.

There won’t be another showdown between Nyquist and Exaggerator because Nyquist is out with a fever.

Not surprisingly, Exaggerator’s at the top of the Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper Software™ Odds Line, but there are some interesting things to notice about the race.

Once again, there’s are some interesting wrinkles having to do with the Track Profile and how the past Belmont Stakes winners have positioned themselves in the race and how they expended their energy.

I did a video for you on the Belmont Stakes, and also looked at some races from the Belmont undercard. One of my favorite races is the 7 furlong Woody Stephens Stakes (it’s the 7th race at Belmont on Saturday), because it’s usually a Highly Pressured affair. This year is no different, and there’s a lone closer in the race as well.

It’s two days before the races I’m discussing, so I don’t have all the scratches, changes, etc., and the weather forecast is predicting rain over the weekend in Elmont, but you’ll get the idea of the approach to finding Value investments (as opposed to the ‘gotta pick a winner’ ‘who do ya like?’ approach).

What’s important is not so much those specific races and their outcomes, but the approach of ValueCapping™. The shift from ‘handicapper/horseplayer’ to Investor/ ValueCapper is more than just words. It’s a different game. And in this video, I hope you’ll gain some additional insight into the ValueCapping approach.

I hope this finds you well, and I’d like to extend again my sincere thanks to you for all the kind words, email, support, and encouragement. You can always email me at michael@posttimedaily.com and let me know of your progress or ask any questions you have. (If you have technical questions, you’ll get a quicker answer by emailing support@posttimedaily.com) As it’s Belmont week, be patient with me, as it may take me some extra time to get back to you.

Those of you who are now or have ever been on the Wizards’ Forum will be getting a snail mail letter next week about the new video streaming, pricing structure, etc. I’ve been able to delay the new pricing structure until July 1st, and all the details are in the letter.

Finally, ValueCapper is coming along very nicely. Thanks for your patience: I think you’re going to find it to be a game changer.

Best of luck always and remember to let the bet make you!

All the best,

Michael

Michael Pizzolla
www.PostTimeDaily.com

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