Fantastic article about the relationship between conventional handicapping and selecting stock market investments. A must read!
Thinking Outside the Box and Apple Computer — GuruFocus.com
When I was young and endeavored to become “The World’s Greatest Handicapper,” the first book I read on thoroughbred handicapping was Tom Anslie’s classic work “The Complete Guide to Thoroughbred Handicapping.”The book was considered required reading for anyone who wished to attend the races on regular basis for good reason. It was an in depth description of all the accepted factors which determined the outcome of a race; discussing the importance of such things as pace, distance, class, conditioning etc. The book remains a classic and it still provides a fantastic introduction to the art of thoroughbred handicapping. After absorbing the book completely and then studying “The Daily Racing Form,” I headed to the track brimming with confidence and armed with a few “locks” which fills multiple categories described in the book for selecting a winner. Much to my dismay, when post time came around, my list of cinches all turned out to be “heavy chalks” (decisive favorites). In reality, what I had learned was not how to make money at the race track, rather how to think precisely like the other “experts” and select the favorite well in advance of the race. The ability to predict low-priced favorites which offer no betting value is quite similar to the ability to predict popular stocks which offer little long-term value and little hope of outperforming the general indices. The subject of this article is an analysis of some of the factors which can aid an investor in achieving above average long-term gains by “thinking outside the box.”