Michael Pizzolla’s 2014 Kentucky Derby ValueCapping Rant

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From The Desk of Michael Pizzolla
May 1, 2014 12:21 PM
Las Vegas, Nevada

Dear ValueCapper and Friend:

Well, it’s finally here.

After months of Derby preps, the 2014 Kentucky Derby is this Saturday.

And I may not be able to bet.

Churchill Downs and Las Vegas have still not reached an agreement, so the Vegas books are not taking any bets on Churchill Downs.

It figures.

This year, for a change, I actually think it’s not a bad betting race.

Of course, with 11 colts above random, it’s not the paradigm of a simple, clear, and obvious race, but there’s a colt with a legitimate shot at a price.

California Chrome’s at the top of the BLAM line, but I have my reservations about him.

My sense is that the second colt down on the line has a chance to do well at a price.

There are some interesting colts near the top of the line that have a running style to be in the exotics.

I’ve made a 25 minute video for you all about this year’s Kentucky Derby. For those of you with really short attention spans, I give the bottom line within the first 5 minutes.

There’s an alternative link in the P.S. if this one doesn’t work.

For those of you (hopefully most of you reading this) who are more interested in the analysis process that goes into finding good value investments, the second part of the video goes into great detail on the pace scenario and the value issues.

I hope this finds you well, and wish you all the best on Derby weekend and always.

All the best,


P.P.S Don’t forget the undercards! For example, at Churchill Downs on Derby Day, there are a couple of 7 furlong sprints that come up Highly Pressured, the 7th and the 9th. Take a look at those races. There are some deep closers near the top of the line (lucky 7s?) that should be overlooked by the public. Depending on how receptive the track is to closers that day, they may be even better bets than the Derby.

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