From The Desk Of Michael Pizzolla
Las Vegas, Nevada
June 4, 2015 10:47 AM
Dear ValueCapper and Friend,
The third jewel of the Triple Crown, The 2015 Belmont Stakes will be here in two days.
Naturally there’s a lot of excitement about American Pharoah possibly winning the Triple Crown.
As many of you know, I was there in 1973 for Secretariat’s Belmont, and then in 1977 and 1978 watched Seattle Slew and Affirmed take their places in history. When I saw the great Spectacular Bid finish 3rd in 1979, I shrugged and thought there would be another Triple Crown winner soon enough.
And here we are, 37 years after the last Triple Crown winner.
I’ve been to almost all of the failed attempts since then. I saw Easy Goer beat Sunday Silence in 1989, and then ten years later was very disappointed to see Charismatic run third. I had been the subject of a great deal of needling when I did a radio show a couple of days before Charismatic’s Derby and selected him to win. The experts weren’t laughing as hard after he paid $64.60.
I won’t be going back this year, not because I don’t think American Pharoah doesn’t have a shot-obviously he does-but because of family obligations that can’t be avoided.
Although I often advise you ValueCappers to treat this game as an investor would, the racing fan in me would love to see a Triple Crown winner. As a youngster, I went to the track with my grandfather and begged him to take me there again and again, begged him to take me there rather than to the amusement park. On big days like Belmont Stakes day, I still feel that thrill. I know many of you can relate.
About the race.
Surprisingly, American Pharoah’s not at the top of Black Magic: Ultimate Handicapper Software’s Odds Line. Then again, he is the Fulcrum, and there are some interesting calls that can be made in the race. Plus, it’s a mile and a half marathon, a distance that’s not particularly well suited to incremental pace analysis.
I did a video for you on the 2015 Belmont Stakes, and will take you through how I look at the race and the calls and ‘what if’ scenarios I examined.
As with all of the videos I do, what’s important is not so much this specific race and its outcome, but the approach of ValueCapping, and the moving away from the sometimes frustrating pursuit of ‘picking a winner’ to the investment mindset of ValueCapping and finding a good value bet.
Don’t forget that on ‘big days’ such as Belmont Stakes day, there’s often great value bets to be found in the undercards, as ‘amateur money’ is plentiful on these days.
You can watch the video by clicking here:
I hope this finds you well, and I’d like to extend again my sincere thanks to you for all the kind words, support, and encouragement through this Triple Crown series. You can always email me at firstname.lastname@example.org and let me know of your progress or ask any questions you have. (If you have technical questions, you’ll get a quicker answer by emailing email@example.com) As it’s Belmont week, be patient with me, as it may take me some extra time to get back to you.
Good luck always!
All the best,
P.S. For those of you who have been asking about the new ValueCapper software, thank you for your patience. We’re getting close, and I promise to keep you posted.