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Michael Pizzolla’s ValueCapping Rant For April 19, 2014 Lexington Stakes

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From The Desk Of Michael Pizzolla
Las Vegas, Nevada, April 18, 2014 3:37 PM

Dear ValueCapper and Friend:

The coming weekend is a quiet one for Derby prep races. Makes sense-the Kentucky Derby is only two weeks away, and it’s a holiday weekend for many.

The only Derby prep being run this weekend is the Lexington, carrying only 10 Derby points (as opposed to the 100 point preps such as the Louisiana, Florida, Santa Anita, Arkansas, and Blue Grass Derbies).

In the Lexington, the 9th at Keeneland on April 19, 2014, of the 11 colts, 7 are above random (i.e., have a shot), and 5 are off layoffs. When you have nearly half the field off layoffs, projecting the potential pace/position scenario becomes problematic. While you may know that a horse has the tendency to go to the front, or press, the question becomes which of those horses off layoffs will be ready to demonstrate those abilities.

For example, if you have a field with many layoff horses, and think that the race will favor a closer because there are many early horses BUT of the 4 early horses, 2 are coming off layoffs, if those 2 don’t run, you’ve got a very different scenario.

It looks like the 2, Solitary Ranger, will be part of the early pace, and may be able to get on top, but the colt expends its energy very early. The track profile for Keeneland 8.5 furlongs is decidedly late. One late colt that’s interesting is the 7, Ami’s Holiday, second on the BLAM line and has closed in all of its 4 lifetime races, all of which were run at Woodbine.

BLAM’s AccuPressureV2 makes it the lone closer, which is unusual to find in a Fulcrum horse. However, it’s been off since December.

All in all, most likely a pass race for me.

I also took a look at the Illinois Derby which is not technically a Derby Prep, as it doesn’t carry any Derby points.

In the Illinois Derby, the 9th at Hawthorne on April 19, 2014, it looks like the public will have the same 3 horses as BLAM: The 4/5 ML favorite, the 3, Midnight Hawk, the 8, Class Leader, and the 1, Dynamic Impact. While I don’t think the 3 deserves the 4/5 ML, I don’t see a bet ‘making me’. I lean slightly towards the 8, Class Leader, but I doubt I’d get the 6 or 7-1 I’d need to invest.

I hope this finds you well, and no matter what holiday-or no holiday at all-you’re celebrating, I hope that you get to spend some quality time with friends and family.

Let the bet make you, and we’ll talk soon,

All the best,

Michael

P.S. For those of you who prefer to read this on the Post Time Daily Blog, Click Here

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