Dear ValueCapper and Friend:
It’s a week away. And racing fans around the world are all abuzz.
I overheard a couple of my golfing buddies yesterday discussing ‘the big race’.
They were actually discussing whether a couple of the horses had trouble changing leads.
And then one of them noticed me sitting there, and came up and asked me how much a 2 horse exacta box cost.
I wish I were kidding.
The sheer volume of minutiae that is being discussed in articles on the internet is astounding.
Those of you who have been following my Rants for years know that I feel the Kentucky Derby really is just another horse race.
And I look at hundreds a day, every day.
Since developing Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper™ Software 5 years ago, I continue to ValueCap every race in North America, every day.
I also coach a small group of committed and dedicated winners on the Wizards’ Forum.
They get my personal attention and coaching and it’s something I’m involved with every day.
Nothing-not even a Derby winner-makes me happier than to see a Wizard finally ‘get it’ about value betting.
This past Tuesday, in the 3rd race at Turf Paradise, several of the Wizards bet on BLAM’s top horse, the 7, Battle School, and were rewarded with an $85.20 mutuel.
This was a $3,000 claimer at Turf Paradise. I imagine that some of the lead ponies for the Derby horses have better breeding than some of the horses that ran in that claimer.
Yet, it was an outstanding value investment.
Not because it won.
But because it was a horse that had some positives going for it that the public was sure to hate.
Like the fact that it finished 40 lengths back in its last race.
The public seemed to overlook that the second and third races back were quite good.
And the fact that BLAM’s algorithms selected a couple of turf running lines to make its odds line.
‘Everybody knows’ you don’t use turf lines in a 6 furlong sprint.
‘Everybody knows’ you don’t bet a horse that finished 40 lengths back in its last race.
It was a perfect example of ‘betting horses you like that the public shouldn’t’.
Of course they don’t all win, but how many $85.20 horses does one need to make up for the ones that didn’t win and show a very tidy profit?
Those of you who have BLAM, go ahead and open up the 3rd race from Turf Paradise from April 22, 2014.
And let me know, if you haven’t seen the race before, if this wasn’t a ‘picture perfect’ simple, clear, and obvious value investment.
One of the themes of my coaching is to wait until the race seems very clear, and the value horse is obvious.
Sure, there are occasions where the Derby is pretty clear, and I’ve done very well on those years.
Yet, the odds are against it.
20 three year old colts who have never gone a mile and a quarter, most of them potential champions running in the ‘chance of a lifetime’ in front of 140,000 screaming fans.
It’s usually more like a lottery than an investment opportunity.
Nonetheless, as soon as we get the final card, I’ll do an analysis of the Derby.
Hopefully, it will present a clear value investment.
If not, I’ll do what I do every day of my life: Pass the race.
Oh, heck, I’m human, and sure, I’ll have a ‘recreational bet’ on the race.
But unless it’s clear as a still pond of water, I won’t invest.
That mindset can make you significant profits in this game.
Treat it as an investment, and you’ll do very well.
Speaking of which, I hope this finds you happy and well.
All the best,
P.S. Thanks so much again for all of your encouragement and support. You can always write me at firstname.lastname@example.org. As this is Derby time, please be patient, but I will get back to you. And if you have technical issues, drop a line to email@example.com, or call the office Monday through Friday, 9-4 Pacific Time at 702-889-2814