From the Desk Of Michael Pizzolla
August 22, 2014 6:57 AM, Las Vegas
Dear ValueCapper and Friend,
Tomorrow marks the 145th running of the Travers Stakes at Saratoga.
I’ve gotten quite a few requests to do an analysis of the Midsummer Derby, and I was excited to do so, until I opened Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper Software and looked at the race.
As it turns out, the race is not very interesting from an investment point of view, but it is for a lesson in investment strategy.
The top three colts on the BLAM line are the 2, Bayern (the Fulcrum in this race), the 6 Tonalist (the winner of the Belmont Stakes in which it was the Fulcrum), and the 7, Wicked Strong, which just won the Jim Dandy, beating Tonalist.
Bayern projects through BLAM’s AccuPressureV2 feature to have the lead, or be just off the lead and reserve some energy for the end of the race.
So what’s the issue?
The Morning Line on those three horses are: 2-1 3-1 7/2.
And the Contention Line-that’s the line that BLAM makes to attempt to predict what the public should do in the race-for those three colts are the lowest in the field.
It doesn’t look like there will be a price on one of these colts which will justify investing. That’s what makes this an object lesson in ValueCapping.
In my last rant, I sent you a video on why avoiding races that don’t provide a price that compensates you for the risk you take when you bet is crucial. If you haven’t seen it, here’s the link:
I think the Travers on Saturday is one of those races.
If I were looking to speculate on an exotic, I might look to the 8, Kid Cruz. This was a colt that I thought might close in the Preakness. It didn’t, but in the next two races after that, it won the Easy Goer and the Dwyer at Belmont. It was also 3rd in the Jim Dandy to Wicked Strong and Tonalist.
I’m going to look at the undercard-there are 14 races at Saratoga tomorrow. Nothing pops off the page right now, but I have a feeling that scratches will make some of the races more clear.
An intriguing race is the 7th, a race where the 8, the Fulcrum, is 12-1 Morning Line and at the top of BLAM’s line, and the others that BLAM is pointing to, the 9, 6, and perhaps the 4, all look to be prices. The two ML favorites, the 3 and the 10 are below random in the BLAM line, and that means it has discounted them. This is a situation in which to be cautious, and certain that you’re getting a price to compensate the risk.
I’ll need some help from the board to point to a potential value investment in that race, and if there are too many options, it’s a pass for me.
I hope you’ve been enjoying this great summer of racing.
As for me, I’m still toiling mightily on the new ValueCapper Software. Like you, I wish it was ready today so I could share it with you. It really does make the entire process shockingly simple.
But it has to be up to our standards before it’s released.
Also, I’m not going to take the same approach that I did with Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper Software, that of inundating you with a massive number of DVDs and materials that would overwhelm anyone. Rather, I’m designing a very cool course that will allow you to get trained in the entire approach of ValueCapping as well as the use of the new software in an easy, bite-sized, step-by-step manner.
All of this is taking an enormous amount of time, but I promise you, it’s going to be a game changer. I’ll keep you posted on the progress of the project.
I want to thank you again for the kind words and emails, and please don’t hesitate to drop me a line directly at firstname.lastname@example.org if you have any questions or want to let me know of your progress.
Enjoy and remember to let the bet make you!
All the best,