Michael Pizzolla’s ValueCapping Rant: Thoughts On The Belmont Stakes And The Triple Crown Watch

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From The Desk Of Michael Pizzolla
May 30, 2014 9:33 PM
Las Vegas, Nevada

Dear ValueCapper and Friend:

The Triple Crown frenzy continues.

I’ve said before that California Chrome is a very good colt, a colt that BLAM put at the top of the line in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness.

I was chided by a couple of readers because I said that California Chrome might not be a ‘great’ colt.

I suppose that all depends on how high a standard one sets for ‘great’. Certainly his times were good, not great.

And I was fortunate to see several races of a great colt, including the Belmont Stakes in which that colt ran two sub 24 quarters in that race, and after that came home in 25 seconds en route to setting a world record.

That great colt was Secretariat.

So I have admittedly high standards.

While California Chrome’s quest for the Triple Crown is a good thing for racing in that even casual racing fans are talking about it, I’m unsure about what effect his winning the Crown will have on the future of the sport.

Will it inspire large numbers to be suddenly interested in the game, in wagering or investing in the ‘nitty gritty’ low priced claiming races that make up the main menu of most tracks’ day to day offerings?

I rather doubt it.

Still, I’d be happy to see him win, although I won’t be betting on him to do so. Why? The price will be prohibitively low. Perhaps we’ll find a colt with a shot at a price to bet on against him, but if there’s not, I’ll just watch the race like millions of other fans.

I do have another reason for wanting Chrome to win. One of the Wizards who uses Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper Software has gone on a trip to see all three of this year’s Triple Crown races.

This was a young man who came to ValueCapping and BLAM without a lot of knowledge of handicapping, by his own admission. And he’s found that a distinct advantage. He financed what he calls this ‘trip of a lifetime’ from his winnings, and for his sake I hope he gets to see the first Triple Crown in 36 years.

What makes me even happier is that he wrote me yesterday telling me of his score on a race at Prairie Meadows last night in a lowly $7,500 claimer. A horse that was rather clear on BLAM wired the field and paid an astonishing $33.60. It was so clear that I had bet it in the morning, knowing that it would be a solid price, but I was surprised at the price, and at the $335.20 exacta.

‘Fans’ of the sport, of the great horses, may turn their noses up at these kinds of races, but ValueCappers, investors at the windows, know that these kinds of overlays can produce returns that the Wall Street hedge fund managers can only dream of.

Next week, I’ll send you my take on the 2014 Belmont Stakes and BLAM’s analysis of the race.

Until then, I thank you so much for your encouragement and support, and hope this finds you well.

All the best,


P.S. In answer to some questions I’ve received: I’ve been invited to attend the Belmont Stakes, but don’t know yet whether I’ll be able to go. I’ll keep you posted.

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